Which cities or regions saw the largest drops in homicide rates in 2024–2025?
Executive summary
Several reporting and research aggregates identify a handful of U.S. cities that saw the largest proportional drops in homicide from 2024 into 2025: Denver (about a 45% mid‑year decline), Chattanooga (about 41%), and other large declines reported for Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle (each over 30% in early‑2025 snapshots) [1] [2] [3]. Council on Criminal Justice and Major Cities Chiefs Association data drive most of these claims and emphasize that a small group of high‑homicide cities accounts for much of the national decline [4] [5].
1. Who the big winners were — the cities with the steepest drops
Independent aggregates and CCJ’s mid‑year sample identify Denver as the single largest drop among the study cities — roughly a 45% fall in homicides between the comparable periods — and Chattanooga with a roughly 41% drop in the same frame [1] [4]. Axios’ review of Major Cities Chiefs Association submissions for early 2025 flagged Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle as having declines larger than 30% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Other outlets and datasets corroborate substantial double‑digit declines for places like New York City (reported 27–34% drops in some early‑2025 snapshots) and St. Louis and Baltimore registering large multi‑year improvements as well [6] [5].
2. How analysts measured those drops — samples, timeframes and caveats
Most of the striking percentage declines stem from year‑over‑year comparisons for the first six months or first nine months of 2025 versus the same period in 2024, often using self‑reported city or police‑agency submissions compiled by groups such as the Major Cities Chiefs Association and the Council on Criminal Justice [4] [3] [7]. CCJ cautions that the sample is limited (29–40 cities in various reports), that many cities remain above pre‑2020 homicide levels even as 2024–25 falls occur, and that a few high‑homicide jurisdictions drive much of the national improvement [5] [4].
3. Why a few cities can move national numbers so much
CCJ’s year‑end 2024 and mid‑year 2025 analyses stress that declines in historically high‑homicide cities — Baltimore and St. Louis were cited with 40% and 33% drops compared to earlier baselines — account for a disproportionate share of aggregate improvement [5] [4]. Mid‑year 2025 CCJ notes that 25 of 30 study cities recorded decreases and that the overall mid‑year drop translated into hundreds fewer deaths across the sample, showing how concentrated gains in large or high‑rate places bend national totals [4].
4. Conflicting signals and places that bucked the trend
Not every city saw declines: CCJ and other tallies report some mid‑sized metros rising year‑over‑year, and examples in reporting include Boston’s early‑2025 surge in some datasets and cities such as Little Rock and Virginia Beach showing notable increases in specific CCJ comparisons (Little Rock +39%, Virginia Beach +28% in one sample) [1] [3]. Axios and CCJ both stress heterogeneity: overall national and large‑city declines mask local reversals and measurement differences across agencies [3] [4].
5. Sources of disagreement and hidden agendas to watch
The DHS and partisan outlets have seized on mid‑year drops to credit federal enforcement actions in 2025; DHS press materials cite a 17% homicide decline through June 2025 across 30 cities while echoing CCJ numbers [8]. Independent researchers and nonprofits warn against attributing broad trends to short‑term federal policy moves and point instead to local dynamics and longer‑running post‑2021 reversals in violent crime [9] [10]. Reporters and analysts note that law‑enforcement self‑reports and selective press releases can amplify the appearance of larger, immediate causal effects [4] [9].
6. What the numbers mean for policy and public perception
The data show sizable, concentrated reductions in several major cities that substantially lowered aggregate homicide counts in 2024–25, but analysts (CCJ and others) emphasize the majority of cities still sit above pre‑2020 baselines and that the overall improvement is not uniform [5] [4]. Policymakers and commentators should avoid simple causal narratives — available sources show the pattern but do not settle precise causes — and should treat city‑to‑city differences, reporting windows, and sample selection as central limits on sweeping claims [5] [4].
7. Bottom line: where the biggest drops were, and what remains uncertain
Available reporting consistently points to Denver (≈45%), Chattanooga (≈41%), and several large cities with >30% early‑2025 declines (Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle) as among the biggest year‑over‑year drops [1] [3] [4]. However, the magnitude and interpretation depend on which months, which cities, and which aggregators you use; CCJ and MCCA data underpin most of the striking claims and also note the sampling and attribution limits that make causal verdicts premature [1] [4]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, single cause that explains all the declines.