Fact check: Only 7% of men go to jail for rape

1. Summary of the results

The analyses reveal that the original claim of "only 7% of men go to jail for rape" appears to be significantly higher than what actual data shows across multiple jurisdictions. The evidence presents a much grimmer picture of conviction rates:

• United States: Less than 4% of reported rapes, sexual assaults, and child sex abuse allegations result in sex crime convictions in certain US cities ^[1]
• England and Wales: Only 1,378 out of 70,330 reported rapes led to conviction in 2021-2022, resulting in a conviction rate of less than 2% ^[2]
• India: Conviction rates ranged between 27%-28% from 2018-2022, which is notably higher than Western jurisdictions but still represents significant challenges ^[3]

The data consistently shows that the majority of perpetrators will not go to jail or prison ^[4], with only 310 out of every 1,000 sexual assaults even being reported to police ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement lacks crucial context about the reporting gap and systemic challenges within justice systems. Key missing elements include:

• Underreporting crisis: The vast majority of sexual assaults are never reported to authorities, meaning the actual percentage of perpetrators facing consequences is even lower than conviction statistics suggest ^[4]
• Systemic failures: Multiple sources highlight that victims face significant barriers in the justice system, with rape survivors "paying too high a price for justice" ^[5]
• International variations: Different legal systems show dramatically different outcomes, with some countries like India showing higher conviction rates while others like the UK show extremely low rates ^{[3] [2]}
• Legal framework issues: Some jurisdictions have been criticized for not adequately considering consent in rape cases, affecting prosecution success ^[6]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement contains significant inaccuracies that could mislead the public about the reality of sexual violence prosecution:

• Overestimation of justice: The 7% figure substantially overestimates the actual rate at which perpetrators face consequences, potentially creating false confidence in justice system effectiveness
• Lack of geographic specificity: The statement fails to acknowledge that conviction rates vary dramatically by jurisdiction, with some areas showing rates as low as 2% ^[2]
• Conflation of terms: The statement doesn't distinguish between conviction rates and incarceration rates, which may differ
• Missing systemic context: By presenting an isolated statistic, the statement obscures the broader crisis of underreporting and prosecutorial challenges that characterize sexual violence cases ^{[4] [7] [5]}

The evidence suggests that those who might benefit from accepting the 7% figure could include individuals seeking to minimize the scope of sexual violence or downplay systemic failures in criminal justice responses to these crimes.