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Fact check: What are the top 5 states with the lowest crime rates in 2024?
Executive Summary
The answer to “top 5 states with the lowest crime rates in 2024” depends on which metric is used: violent-crime rate per 100,000 residents, property-crime rate, or composite safety indexes that weight road, workplace, financial, and emergency-preparedness measures. Different 2024 sources point to a recurring set of New England states—Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine—plus other Northeastern states such as Connecticut and New Jersey or alternative states like Massachusetts and Utah depending on methodology [1] [2] [3]. Reported rankings diverge because of differences in data sources, time windows, and the choice of composite versus single-rate indicators [4] [5].
1. Why the “top 5” answer is slippery — different metrics, different winners
Crime-rate comparisons can produce different top-five lists because reports use distinct definitions and blends of crimes. WalletHub’s 2024 ranking is a composite safety index blending personal, residential, financial, road, workplace safety, and emergency readiness to declare Vermont safest, then New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, and Utah [1]. By contrast, another 2024 list highlights New Hampshire’s particularly low violent-crime ratio—reported as roughly 65% below national average—and a property-crime rate about half the national state average, placing New Hampshire among the safest [2]. A third source lists Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and New Jersey as top five by specific per-capita crime figures, illustrating how a focus on raw per-100,000 incident rates yields a different set of leaders [3].
2. What the mainstream 2024 data trends agree on — New England stands out
Across the 2024 sources there is consistent emphasis on New England states as low-crime outliers. Vermont and New Hampshire repeatedly appear at or near the top across composite and per-capita lists, and Maine likewise ranks highly in multiple reports [1] [2] [3]. National aggregations for 2024 also indicate a broader decline in crime: reports note a 4.5% drop in violent crime and an 8.1% drop in property crime nationally for 2024, which frames state-level rankings within a downward national trend [4]. These converging signals support the interpretation that the safest states in 2024 cluster in the Northeast, though exact ordering varies by metric [1] [4].
3. Where lists diverge sharply — methodology and data-age matter
Discrepancies among the supplied sources arise from differences in methodology and the provenance of underlying counts. WalletHub uses a multi-factor scoring system combining government and private datasets to produce a composite safety score [1]. Another source reports per-100,000 incident rates and assigns specific numeric crime rates to Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and New Jersey [3]. User-generated or opinion-based lists, such as certain crowd-sourced compilations, can contradict statistical reports and should be treated with caution because they may mix perceptions with anecdotal information [5]. The choice of reporting year, whether based on FBI UCR/NIBRS submissions, state agency data, or adjusted metrics, directly changes rankings [2] [3].
4. How to reconcile competing lists — practical guidance on interpretation
To reconcile competing top-five claims, prioritize clear, single-metric comparisons when you need a simple answer (for example, lowest violent-crime rate per 100,000), and use composite indices when you want a multi-dimensional safety view. For per-capita violent crime, New Hampshire and Vermont often outperform most states; for composite safety indices Vermont and New Hampshire lead, and WalletHub places Massachusetts and Utah in its top five through broader factors [1] [2]. If property crime is prioritized rather than violent crime, ordering can shift, so explicitly state which crime measure you mean when asking “lowest crime rates” [3] [4].
5. What the evidence omits — caveats that change the picture
Important omitted considerations include intra-state variation, reporting practices, and population composition. States with low overall rates can contain higher-crime cities; conversely, high-performing cities in otherwise higher-rate states can be masked by state averages. Reporting practices and transitions to NIBRS vs UCR frameworks can change recorded counts year-to-year, creating apparent shifts that are administrative rather than substantive [4]. Composite indexes can overweight non-crime factors like road safety or emergency preparedness, producing rankings that are informative but not comparable to raw crime-rate lists [1].
6. Short, defensible answer and next-step sources to verify
If pressed for a succinct 2024 “top five” based on the evidence supplied, the most defensible list across sources is Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, and New Jersey when using per-capita crime figures, while WalletHub’s composite index lists **