How many MS-13 members are estimated in the United States as of 2025?

1. Conflicting headline numbers: DOJ’s “over 10,000” vs. academic 50k–70k

Federal sources quoted in 2025 media point to U.S. membership in the low five‑digits: USA Today reported that MS‑13 has “over 10,000 members” in the United States citing a Department of Justice fact sheet ^[1]. By contrast, an Office of Justice Programs summary of a multi‑year study says MS‑13 has between 50,000 and 70,000 members overall—an estimate that the report locates “in Central America or locations outside this region where there is a large Central‑American diaspora,” not all of them in the United States ^[2]. The two figures answer different questions and are sometimes conflated in public discussion.

2. What “members” and “associates” mean in different tallies

Available reporting shows agencies and researchers use different definitions: DOJ materials and news outlets often refer to “members” or “affiliates” in the U.S. to describe individuals identified through investigations and prosecutions ^{[1] [3]}. Academic fieldwork that produced the 50k–70k range examined the transnational scope and counted concentrated networks across continents, not strictly U.S. resident members ^[2]. Because methods and inclusion criteria differ, comparisons across sources are not apples‑to‑apples.

3. Recent enforcement context that shapes counts and headlines

In 2025, U.S. law enforcement agencies publicized arrests and removals of confirmed MS‑13 members, and the State Department formally designated MS‑13 as a Foreign Terrorist Organization—actions that sharpen public attention and may affect how agencies report numbers ^{[4] [5]}. Press releases from DHS, CBP, ICE and USCIS emphasize arrests of individual members and describe the organization as having “tens of thousands” of members internationally ^{[6] [7] [3]}. Those operational announcements focus on enforcement and risk, not on independent demographic accounting.

4. Why public estimates vary: methodology, geography and motive

Differences stem from three drivers visible in the reporting: geography—some counts are U.S.‑only while others are global/transnational ^{[1] [2]}; methodology—academic fieldwork, FBI/DOJ case files, and immigration/enforcement data each detect and count different populations ^{[2] [3]}; and institutional agendas—law‑enforcement and political communications emphasize threat and enforcement outcomes, which can lead to rounded, high‑impact phrasing like “tens of thousands” or “over 10,000” depending on context ^{[6] [1]}. The sources do not provide a single reconciled census.

5. What the sources do not say (limitations to note)

Available sources do not publish a transparent, contemporary census methodology that reconciles the DOJ “over 10,000” U.S. figure with the OJP 50k–70k global estimate; they also do not provide a definitive 2025 breakdown of how many of the 50k–70k (if any) reside in the United States ^{[1] [2]}. Public agency press releases report arrests and prosecutions but do not present a comprehensive, updated membership spreadsheet ^{[3] [6]}.

6. Bottom line for readers seeking a single number

If you need a conservative, U.S.‑focused figure cited in 2025 reporting, use the DOJ‑referenced “over 10,000” members in the United States ^[1]. If you are discussing MS‑13’s global size and transnational reach, cite the Office of Justice Programs’ 50,000–70,000 estimate while noting that that range covers Central America and diaspora communities rather than only U.S. residents ^[2]. Both figures appear in official or widely cited reporting in 2025; they describe different populations and should not be treated as identical ^{[1] [2]}.

Sources cited: USA Today citing a DOJ fact sheet ^[1]; Office of Justice Programs summary of multi‑year research ^[2]; DOJ/USCIS and federal enforcement releases noting “tens of thousands” and arrests ^{[3] [4] [5] [6]}.