What do the latest Office for National Statistics figures show about sexual assault trends in England and Wales 2024-25?

1. What the headline numbers say — survey and police show different pictures

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) provides the leading prevalence figures: depending on the survey period cited, around 2.1% of people aged 16+ (YE Dec 2024) and 2.6% of people aged 16–59 (YE March 2024) reported sexual assault in the last year — amounts equivalent to roughly one million victims in those snapshots ^{[1] [4] [5]}. By contrast, police recorded sexual offences were 209,079 in YE March 2025, an 11% rise on the previous year — a surge the ONS explicitly links to recording changes, new offence categories introduced in January 2024, and increased reporting rather than a simple rise in underlying offending ^{[2] [3]}.

2. Why the two datasets must be read together — strengths and limits

The ONS makes a clear methodological point: the CSEW captures crimes that never reach police records and so is the “best estimate of prevalence,” while police recorded crime covers wider categories and is sensitive to police recording practice and activity ^{[3] [1]}. CSEW estimates for YE March 2024 and YE March 2025 were produced from half samples, a limitation ONS flags as reducing precision; similarly, new offences recorded from January 2024 mean direct year-on-year comparisons of police figures are impaired ^{[3] [2]}.

3. Long-term trends and what’s changed recently

Longer-term CSEW comparisons show an increase in sexual assault prevalence compared with a decade earlier (for example, 1.7% in YE March 2015 to around 2.4–2.6% in recent surveys), after an earlier period of decline between 2005 and 2014 ^{[3] [5]}. Police-recorded sexual offences have risen substantially over the last decade; ONS and other observers caution much of that rise reflects reporting and recording shifts rather than a pure rise in offending ^{[3] [1]}.

4. Who is most affected — victim breakdowns

CSEW self-completion data show clear gender gaps: in YE March 2025, 3.8% of females and 0.9% of males aged 16–59 reported sexual assault in the last year, a pattern ONS emphasises while noting longer-term stability for male estimates and more fluctuation for female estimates over earlier years ^[6]. The ONS and partner organisations use these different measures to inform policy and support services because many incidents never reach the criminal justice system ^{[3] [6]}.

5. Criminal justice response — prosecutions, arrests and policy implications

Police-recorded rape and sexual offences remain a substantial proportion of recorded sexual crime: around 36% of recorded sexual offences in the year ending June 2024 were rape, amounting to about 69,000 offences ^[7]. Arrest numbers and prosecution rates are separate datasets cited by commentators and Parliament; the House of Lords and NAO have highlighted low prosecution rates despite rising recorded offences, and political pledges (specialist teams, courts) have followed in response ^{[7] [8]}.

6. How to interpret increases — alternative explanations and caveats

ONS and independent analysts warn that recent increases in police-recorded sexual offences largely reflect three mechanisms: improved police recording, new offence categories introduced in 2024, and increases in reporting by victims — each of which creates an upward shift that does not necessarily equate to an increase in the underlying incidence of offending ^{[3] [1]}. CSEW sample reductions (half-sample) for some recent estimates further complicate trend interpretation ^{[3] [2]}.

7. What the data do not tell us — gaps and outstanding questions

Available sources do not mention precise causal links between any single policy change and victim reporting; ONS says redevelopment work on sexual victimisation questions is ongoing and that some follow-up questions have been paused while they are redeveloped, which limits detail on certain victim experiences ^{[9] [3]}. The ONS also notes statistical limits in comparing combined measures of domestic abuse, sexual assault and stalking across years because of overlaps and methodological constraints ^[10].

8. Bottom line for readers and policymakers

The ONS picture is unequivocal about scale: sexual assault affects hundreds of thousands of people each year in England and Wales, the CSEW gives the most reliable prevalence estimate while police recordings have grown to over 200,000 offences in YE March 2025 — but decision-makers must treat increases in recorded crime cautiously because recording and reporting changes drive much of the rise ^{[1] [2] [3]}.