How many Palestinian civilians versus combatants have been killed since October 7, 2023?

1. The basic counting problem: total Palestinian deaths vs. combatant classification

Gaza’s Ministry of Health provides widely cited totals of people killed but does not distinguish civilians from combatants, so that single “death toll” cannot by itself answer your question ^{[5] [6]}. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) collects casualty data and defines civilians as those not in security forces or not performing a combat function, but it says incidents from the 7 October hostilities are only added after independent verification — leaving a gap between raw tallies and verified civilian/combatant coding ^[7].

2. Israeli official and leaked tallies: higher combatant counts, but contested

Israeli military and government statements have at times asserted large numbers of Palestinian fighters killed — tens of thousands in some public claims — and the IDF/Israeli intelligence have given higher combatant totals privately. Reporting based on a leaked Israeli intelligence database found 8,900 Hamas and PIJ fighters listed as confirmed or “probably” dead by May 2025, which, if compared to Gaza’s overall death figures at that time, implies a high civilian proportion among the dead ^{[1] [2]}. Critics and independent outlets question both the accuracy of Israeli counts and the methods used to classify fatalities as combatants ^{[6] [2]}.

3. Independent and NGO estimates: wide range, methodologies matter

Independent researchers and NGOs that try to disaggregate the MoH list arrive at very different ratios because of methodological choices. For instance, Analysis by the AOAV project concluded at least 74% of deaths in a first-year dataset were civilians (about 30,122 civilians vs. maybe 10,595 combatants), using demographic patterns and exclusion criteria to infer combatant status ^[4]. Other syntheses and datasets (including academic, media and NGO work) produce civilian shares ranging from roughly two‑thirds to over four‑fifths, depending on whether they treat certain demographics (adult males), place-of-death patterns, or affiliation claims as indicators of combatant status ^{[3] [4]}.

4. What independent data-aggregation projects say about uncertainty

Projects such as ACLED and journalistic inquiries underline the uncertainty: ACLED notes the Gaza Ministry of Health does not separate combatants and civilians and that both MoH and Israeli claims have attribution limits that ACLED cannot independently verify, so casualty-coding involves judgment calls and unavoidable gaps ^[5]. Reuters and peer‑reviewed work flagged by Reuters have warned official tallies may undercount deaths because of health system collapse and bodies trapped under rubble, which further complicates breakdowns by civilian status ^[8].

5. Why the percentage of civilians varies so much across analyses

Differences come down to source selection and classification rules: some analyses take the MoH total as ground truth and try to probabilistically assign combatant status to adult males or known operatives; Israeli sources tend to classify more deaths as fighters; leaked Israeli data suggests a lower number of fighters than some Israeli public claims but still implies a large civilian share ^{[1] [6] [4]}. Methodological choices (e.g., treating police, ministry employees, or adult males as combatants or civilians) and access to names/bio-data create divergent outcomes ^{[5] [4]}.

6. Competing narratives and potential incentives

Each data producer has incentives that shape reporting. Gaza’s Health Ministry is run by authorities in Gaza and provides comprehensive name-based tallies but does not separate combatant status ^[5]. Israeli officials have incentives to emphasize combatant deaths to justify military operations; leaked internal data and independent reporting have at times contradicted public Israeli claims ^{[6] [1]}. NGOs and independent researchers seek to correct or contextualize both sets of claims but must make judgment calls and extrapolations when records are incomplete ^{[4] [5]}.

7. What can be stated with confidence from available sources

Available sources agree on key limits: the Gaza MoH provides a high total number of Palestinian deaths but does not classify combatant status ^[5]; Israeli internal data released to journalists and NGOs indicates thousands of confirmed or probable fighters (about 8,900 by May 2025 in one leaked dataset) but that figure is smaller than some Israeli public claims and still implies a majority of deaths were civilians in many comparisons ^{[1] [2]}. Exact civilian vs. combatant totals remain contested and method-dependent ^{[7] [5]}.

8. How to interpret headline ratios and what reporters recommend

Treat any single ratio (e.g., “X civilians vs. Y combatants”) as provisional and dependent on source definitions. Journalists and analysts recommend citing the underlying data source (MoH totals, IDF tallies, leaked datasets, NGO breakdowns) and explaining the classification method used rather than presenting one definitive number, because available reporting documents substantial disagreement and methodological constraints ^{[5] [4] [1]}.

If you want, I can extract specific headline numbers from one chosen source (e.g., Gaza MoH totals, the leaked Israeli intelligence figure of 8,900 fighters, or AOAV’s civilian/combatant breakdown) and show exactly how that produces a civilian-to-combatant ratio, with inline citations to the relevant sources ^{[4] [1] [5]}.