How do per-deportee costs in 2025 compare to prior years like 2020 and 2024?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
Per-deportee cost estimates vary widely across sources: advocacy and research groups place the 2024 average near $14,000 per removal (National Immigration Forum) while study-aggregations cited by Penn Wharton put the cost of large-scale deportation at roughly $70,236 per deportee (averaging $30,591 and $109,880) [1] [2]. DHS and reporting cite operational figures “more than $17,000 per deportee” for ICE arrest/detain/remove operations in 2025, and detention spending has been roughly $3 billion per year through FY2019–FY2024 before sharp increases in 2025 funding [3] [4].
1. Numbers don’t converge: multiple estimates, multiple methodologies
There is no single accepted per-deportee price. The National Immigration Forum reports the average cost to deport an individual in 2024 at nearly $14,000, a figure that appears to represent typical operational removals under existing policy [1]. By contrast, Penn Wharton aggregates two prior studies that model the fiscal cost of “mass deportation” scenarios and reports an average of $70,236 per deportee — a number driven upward by different assumptions about detention length, monitoring and follow‑on fiscal impacts [2]. Independent reporting cites DHS operational estimates above $17,000 per deportee for traditional arrest/detention/removal actions in 2025 [3]. Each source uses different scopes and accounting frames, which explains the divergence [2] [1] [3].
2. What changed from 2020 to 2024 in the baseline cost picture
Available sources show per-deportee accounting trending upward through 2024. The National Immigration Forum notes a rise from about $10,070 in 2015 to nearly $14,000 in 2024, indicating steady growth in average removal costs prior to 2025 [1]. Other historical references (e.g., ICE’s 2016 figure of roughly $10,900 cited in commentary) align with that upward trajectory and highlight detention, legal processing and transportation as recurring cost drivers [5] [1]. Sources do not provide a discrete, single per-deportee figure for 2020 specifically; available reporting documents the trend rather than a single-year standardized price [1] [5].
3. Why 2025 numbers look higher: funding, detention capacity and policy changes
Multiple sources tie rising 2025 costs to policy and budget decisions. Congress and the 2025 budget cycle allocated unprecedented new funds for detention and enforcement — including a new $10 billion reimbursement fund and much larger appropriations described as enabling mass detention expansion — and advocacy groups report detention spending had already been near or above $3 billion annually through FY2019–FY2024 before further increases in 2025 [6] [4]. Penn Wharton observed that since January 2025 actual per-deportee costs have substantially exceeded their $70,236 scenario average, noting that some costs are fixed and rise with rapid scale-up [2]. Journalistic reporting also cites DHS operational estimates of more than $17,000 per ICE arrest/detention/removal in 2025, suggesting per-case outlays rose as deportation volumes and detention use increased [3] [4].
4. The role of detention and monitoring in cost variance
Detention and monitoring assumptions drive the largest spread between estimates. The Penn Wharton split that produced the $70,236 figure stems from two studies whose key divergence was detention/monitoring cost assumptions [2] [7]. The National Immigration Forum and other researchers emphasize that detention expenses remained roughly $3 billion per year through FY2019–FY2024 and that increasing bed counts and facility re-openings in 2025 sharply raise marginal costs per deportee [4] [8]. Where studies assume long-term detention, deportee per-capita costs can multiply; where analyses assume quicker processing or alternatives to detention, per-deportee costs fall toward the low‑to‑mid five‑digits or the low‑four‑figures shown in other sources [2] [1].
5. Competing perspectives and hidden agendas to watch
Different sources reflect distinct institutional aims. Penn Wharton frames its $70,236 average in the context of modeling a politically consequential “mass deportation” policy using academic aggregation of prior studies [2]. Advocacy groups like the National Immigration Forum cite lower per-deportee averages and emphasize social and economic harms from removal policies [1] [4]. Conservative-leaning commentators and some policy analysis projects model very large budgetary scenarios (e.g., Cato or budgetary critiques) emphasizing overall appropriations increases in FY2025 that inflate aggregate costs per deportee when scaled up [9]. These differing incentives—academic modeling of extreme scenarios, advocacy-centered costings, and administrative operational accounting—explain much of the disagreement [2] [1] [9].
6. What reporters and policymakers can and cannot conclude
Reporters can conclude that per-deportee costs rose from roughly the low‑five figures in earlier years toward at least the low‑four figures by 2024, with multiple indicators showing higher operational and modeled costs in 2025 [1] [3] [2]. Reporters cannot assert a single authoritative per-deportee price for 2020, 2024 or 2025 because sources use different definitions (routine removals vs. mass‑deportation scenarios) and include or exclude fixed, downstream, or fiscal spillover costs; available sources do not offer a unified, year‑to‑year standardized time series that isolates only comparable per‑deportee transactional costs [2] [1].