What percentage of convicted rapists in Sweden are foreign-born?
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Executive summary
Two commonly-cited figures describe the share of convicted rapists in Sweden who are foreign-born or have an immigrant background: a 2018 Swedish Television (SVT) analysis found that 58% of men convicted of rape in the five years examined were born abroad [1], while a more recent Lund University analysis reports that about 63% of convictions for rape or attempted rape from 2000–2024 were handed to people born abroad or with two foreign-born parents [2] [3]. Both numbers are specific to convicted offenders and sensitive to how “foreign-born” or “immigrant background” is defined, the period studied, and methodological choices. [1] [2] [3]
1. What the headline numbers actually measure
The 58% figure comes from SVT’s 2018 examination of district court convictions over a five-year span and refers specifically to men convicted who were born outside Sweden [1]. The 63% figure reported by Lund University refers to a broader category—people “born abroad, or whose parents were born abroad” (an immigrant or second‑generation background)—and covers convictions between 2000 and 2024 [2] [3]. Other academic analyses using different samples and time windows produce different shares — for example, a study of convictions against adult women between 2000 and 2015 reported that close to half (47.7%) of offenders were born outside Sweden [4]. These differences show that the percentage varies with definition and timeframe [4].
2. Why definitions and timeframes matter
Counting only those “born abroad” yields one percentage; expanding the category to include second‑generation people or those with one foreign‑born parent changes the result markedly [2] [3]. Similarly, sampling all convictions nationwide across decades (2000–2024) versus a five‑year snapshot or single cities (e.g., Malmö) will shift proportions because immigrant populations and reporting, policing, and prosecutorial practices change over time and differ by location [4] [5]. The legal context also matters: Sweden broadened the statutory definition of rape in 2018, which affected what gets recorded and prosecuted as rape [6]. All of the cited figures therefore describe convicted offenders within specific methodological boundaries, not the prevalence of offending in the population at large [2] [1] [4] [6].
3. What the research finds beyond raw percentages
Researchers repeatedly emphasize that most immigrants are not rapists and that overrepresentation in conviction statistics does not imply causation without further context [7] [8]. The Lund University follow‑up paper and related studies find elevated odds of conviction for people born abroad — particularly for those who arrived after age 15 — even after adjusting for socioeconomic factors, substance use, psychiatric disorders, and prior criminality, though adjustments reduce the size of the association [8] [5]. Shorter residence in Sweden is also associated with higher odds in some models, suggesting that integration and selection effects could be factors [5].
4. How media, politics, and method shape public understanding
Public and press attention has repeatedly focused on the immigrant background of convicted offenders, with TV investigations and newspapers highlighting proportions like 58% or 63% and sparking political calls for tougher migration rules [1] [3] [9]. Those emphases can serve multiple agendas: public service reporting that aims to document patterns (SVT) and political narratives using the numbers to justify policy shifts (noted in reporting around tougher citizenship tests) [1] [3]. Academic authors and broadcasters alike warn against simplistic conclusions — convictions are a fraction of offenses, reporting and legal changes affect counts, and confounding social variables matter [2] [3] [5].
5. Bottom line
Depending on the source and how “foreign” is defined, the share of convicted rapists in Sweden who are foreign‑born or have an immigrant background falls roughly in the range reported by these studies: around 58% when counting convicted men who were born abroad in an SVT five‑year analysis [1], and about 63% when including people born abroad or with foreign‑born parents in a Lund University review of convictions from 2000–2024 [2] [3]. Other studies using different samples report lower shares (about 47.7% foreign‑born in a 2000–2015 dataset) underscoring that the precise percentage depends on definitions, timeframes, and methodology [4]. All figures refer to convictions, not to the entire universe of sexual offenses or to causal explanations, which remain contested and require careful, multivariable analysis [8] [5] [6].