What percentage of fentanyl pills seized in the US are produced in Mexico versus China?
Executive summary
Available reporting does not provide a single, authoritative percentage split of fentanyl pills seized in the U.S. that were produced in Mexico versus China; major U.S. and research sources describe a supply chain where Mexican criminal groups manufacture pills using Chinese-sourced precursor chemicals, and historically much finished fentanyl arrived directly from China before shifting to Mexico [1] [2]. Sources emphasize that most seizures occur at the southwest border or involve Mexico-linked trafficking, while China is described as the primary source of precursor chemicals and, earlier, direct shipments of finished fentanyl [3] [1] [2].
1. No neat percentage in public reporting — why the data gap matters
There is no published, uncontested percentage in the provided reporting that says “X% of seized fentanyl pills were made in Mexico and Y% in China.” Congressional and law-enforcement analyses and think-tank reporting instead map a shifting supply chain: China has been called the main source of precursor chemicals and, before 2020 controls, of direct shipments of finished fentanyl; Mexico is consistently identified as the place where many pills are now manufactured and smuggled into the United States [1] [2] [4]. The absence of a single percentage reflects measurement challenges — clandestine production, mixed supply chains, and evolving enforcement — noted across sources [1] [2].
2. How experts and agencies describe the split: production versus precursors
U.S. agencies and analysts consistently separate “finished fentanyl” from precursor chemicals. DEA and congressional reports say Chinese firms and vendors supply precursor chemicals and equipment (pill presses) that enable production in Mexico; Mexican transnational criminal organizations then often synthesize or press pills for U.S. distribution [1] [5]. Brookings and other analyses recount that before tight Chinese controls, much fentanyl consumed in the U.S. was shipped directly from China, but production shifted toward Mexico as controls tightened — a chronological, not purely geographic, story [2].
3. Seizures geography: where U.S. authorities intercept most fentanyl
Federal reporting and GAO-style summaries show most fentanyl seizures happen in the U.S. southwest border region — roughly “about 80%” of fentanyl was seized there in recent government assessments — underscoring Mexico’s central role as the immediate geographic source for much of what law enforcement intercepts [3]. Border Patrol and CBP statistics cited in reporting likewise show the vast majority of interdictions occur at southern border crossings and ports, not at the northern border with Canada [6] [7].
4. China’s continuing role: precursors, online sales, indictments
Multiple Justice Department and DEA-derived sources emphasize that Chinese chemical companies and online vendors supply precursor chemicals, analogues, and sometimes finished substances to buyers worldwide, including Mexico and the U.S. The DOJ announced indictments against China-based firms in 2025, and DEA assessments describe PRC-based vendors selling precursors and pill presses that feed production in Mexico [5] [1]. That means “made in China” is often true for inputs, even when pills are pressed elsewhere [5] [1].
5. Historical shifts: direct shipments from China to now-more-Mexico-based production
Research cited by Brookings and other analysts documents a clear shift: prior to 2020, a very large share of fentanyl that reached U.S. consumers was shipped directly from China (often by mail); after Chinese scheduling and enforcement changes, production and pill-press operations increasingly moved to Mexico, with precursors still traced to China or third countries [2]. This history explains competing political narratives: some policymakers emphasize China’s foundational role in supplying chemicals, while border-focused enforcement and seizure figures point to Mexico as the proximate source of pressed pills [2] [1].
6. Political framing and competing narratives in the record
News outlets and policy pieces show divergent emphases: the White House and DOJ stress cooperation with China and Mexico to reduce flows and highlight precursor controls, while political actors have used seizure locations to justify tariffs or border policies [6] [8] [9]. Reporting from NPR and CFR notes that claims blaming particular countries sometimes overstate or mischaracterize roles — e.g., Canada is frequently cited but plays a limited role in cross-border fentanyl flows compared with Mexico and China [6] [8].
7. What’s missing and what to watch for next
Available sources do not give a definitive percentage split of seized fentanyl pills by country of manufacture; they do provide strong, repeated statements that China supplies many precursor chemicals and that Mexico is the immediate manufacturer and transit point for many pills seized at the U.S. border [1] [3]. Future official quantifications would require forensic tracing of seized pills (precursor markers, laboratory signatures) and transparent, consolidated public reporting from DEA/CBP/DOJ — reporting that, as of these sources, is not presented as a single Mexico-vs.-China percentage [1] [5].