What percentage of fentanyl pill precursors are manufactured in China versus Mexico in 2025?

1. China as the principal source of precursor chemicals — what the reports say

U.S. and independent analysts repeatedly identify China (including PRC-based chemical companies and trafficking networks) as the primary supplier of the chemical inputs used to synthesize fentanyl, with firms in China advertising and shipping precursor chemicals abroad — often legally when substances are not internationally scheduled — to Mexico or directly to the United States ^{[2] [4]}. Brookings summarizes the shift from finished fentanyl shipments out of China to widespread shipment of precursor chemicals after Chinese scheduling, and states China “is still the principal supplier of these precursors” ^[1]. Congressional research and government statements echo that assessment ^{[3] [2]}.

2. Mexico’s role: production, synthesis and transit, not large-scale chemical manufacture

Multiple sources describe Mexico not primarily as the origin of precursor manufacture but as the production and trafficking hub where cartels synthesize precursors into finished fentanyl and press pills for U.S. distribution. Mexican transnational criminal organizations are identified as “primary suppliers of illicit drugs, including fentanyl, for the U.S.,” and U.S. aid and law‑enforcement efforts focus on stopping diversion of precursors into Mexico ^{[3] [5]}. Analyses emphasize that cartels acquire precursors (often sourced from China) and then synthesize and traffic fentanyl northward ^{[1] [6]}.

3. Why no single percentage appears in reporting

The sources show consistent qualitative conclusions — China supplies most precursor chemicals, Mexico processes them into fentanyl — but none provide a quantified percentage split for 2025. Congressional research, Brookings, government press releases and investigative reporting provide descriptions and trends but do not publish a numeric share such as “X% manufactured in China vs Y% in Mexico” for 2025 ^{[2] [1] [3]}. Available sources do not mention a definitive percentage breakdown.

4. Data and definitional challenges behind any percentage

Experts and agencies measure different things: finished fentanyl shipments vs. precursor chemical flows; legal exports vs. illicit shipments; chemicals that are internationally scheduled vs. legally exported inputs. U.S. agencies note PRC firms sell chemicals that may be legal to export, and Chinese trafficking networks and brokers ship precursors to Mexico via container routes, complicating a clean manufacturing-origin statistic ^{[4] [1]}. This fragmentation helps explain why reporting offers strong qualitative attributions but not a single numeric split ^[2].

5. Recent policy moves that affect flows but not definitive shares

In 2024–2025 China tightened controls and engaged in bilateral working groups with Mexico, and in late 2025 Beijing announced export-license requirements for certain chemicals bound for North America — actions that, reporting suggests, could reduce precursor flows—but the sources describe impacts in directional terms (declines in seizures, production difficulty for cartels) rather than producing a percentage-of-origin estimate for 2025 ^{[7] [8] [9]}. Congressional and Senate statements also assert China’s outsized role but do not quantify it ^{[10] [3]}.

6. Competing perspectives and emerging sources beyond China and Mexico

Some reporting and indictments point to other chemical sources emerging — notably India — and to domestic production or routing differences, indicating the supply picture is evolving and multi‑country ^{[11] [12]}. Sources disagree on how much recent policy and enforcement explain reductions in border seizures or purity declines; government reports argue controls helped reduce certain flows, while others caution that cartels adapt by substituting routes and chemicals ^{[8] [5]}.

7. Bottom line for your question and how to proceed

If you need a precise 2025 percentage split, current reporting in the provided sources does not supply one — the evidence is qualitative and consistent that China is the dominant source of precursors and Mexico is the main synthesis/transit hub ^{[1] [2] [3]}. For a numeric estimate you will need access to primary government datasets (DEA, Customs, INCSR) or a new analytic study that explicitly quantifies origin shares; those specific figures are not found in the material supplied here ^{[2] [3]}.