Fact check: How do the rates of black people killed by police compare to other racial groups in the US?

1. Numbers Rising, But Disparities Persist — What the data collectively say

Multiple recent analyses concur that police killings in the U.S. increased after 2020 and continued to rise into 2024–2025, and that Black Americans remain overrepresented among those killed relative to population share. A New York Times study observed year‑over‑year increases since George Floyd’s murder and concluded that racial disparities continue, with Black Americans comprising a larger percentage of victims than their population share ^[1]. Separate 2025 reporting counted over 1,000 deaths in the year-to-date and estimated Black Americans accounted for about 20% of police shootings while representing ~12% of the population ^[4]. These multiple datasets, despite differing collection methods, align on the broad point: disparity is persistent and numerically meaningful.

2. Different metrics change the headline — fatal vs nonfatal shootings matter

The scale of disparity depends on whether analysts examine fatal shootings alone or include nonfatal shootings and other use-of-force incidents. A Johns Hopkins study emphasizing both fatal and nonfatal shootings found non-Hispanic Black people were disproportionately represented among nonfatal injuries, and that patterns can look different when nonfatal events are included — for example, Black victims had 35% lower odds of dying when shot, complicating fatal-only comparisons ^[5]. This indicates that analyses restricted to fatalities can both understate and mischaracterize racial patterns in police use of force depending on local medical outcomes, reporting differences, and classification practices ^[5].

3. Magnitude estimates vary — from roughly double to over three times the risk

Estimates of how much more likely Black people are to be killed by police vary by study and timeframe: a 2020 analysis calculated Black Americans were about 3.23 times more likely than white Americans to die in police encounters ^[2], while other analyses using different years or data sources have reported Black people being about twice as likely ^[3] or accounting for roughly 20% of shootings despite being ~12% of the population ^[4]. These differences arise from methodology choices — denominators (population vs. encounter-based rates), geographic focus, and inclusion of nonfatal incidents — but the unanimous finding across methods is elevated risk for Black Americans.

4. Local context and reporting practices shift the picture — not uniform across places

Regional and departmental variation is large: local reports, such as a 2025 Hamilton police review, found a disproportionality index of 3.2 for Black people in use-of-force incidents, pointing to stark local disparities ^[6]. Conversely, other jurisdictions emphasize overrepresentation of different groups (Indigenous people in Victoria, Canada), illustrating that which racial group is most affected depends heavily on local demographics, policing practices, and how race is recorded ^{[7] [8]}. This geographic heterogeneity means national aggregates mask important local differences that matter for policy responses and accountability ^[6].

5. Data limitations and classification choices introduce uncertainty

All studies note important measurement problems: police reporting is incomplete, media-compiled databases vary, and race is sometimes recorded by officer perception rather than self-identification. The Hamilton study explicitly flagged that officers’ perceptions of race can be imperfect, which can bias disproportion indices ^[6]. Johns Hopkins called for improved data collection because nonfatal shootings change interpretations of racial disparity ^[5]. These documented weaknesses mean precise risk ratios should be treated cautiously, yet they do not eliminate the consistent directional signal of disproportionate harm to Black communities.

6. Competing narratives and potential agendas in reporting

Different reports can reflect varying agendas: advocacy groups and media compilations often emphasize systemic racial disparities and rising totals ^{[1] [4]}, while some local police reports may highlight data caveats or focus on different overrepresented groups to contextualize findings ^[7]. Research framing choices — such as using population denominators versus encounter-based rates — can influence conclusions and policy prescriptions. Readers should recognize that methodological choices and institutional vantage points shape narratives, making it essential to triangulate across independent datasets ^{[1] [2] [6]}.

7. Bottom line for policy and public understanding

Across multiple independent analyses through 2025, the clear, supported fact is that Black Americans experience police lethal force at disproportionately higher rates than their population share, though the exact multiplier varies by data and method ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Improved data collection on both fatal and nonfatal encounters, consistent race classification standards, and localized analyses are crucial to refine estimates and guide reforms; until then, the convergence of diverse studies provides robust evidence that addressing racial disparities in police use of force remains a significant public safety and civil-rights priority ^{[5] [6]}.