What is the projected number of US deportations for 2026?
Executive summary
Available reporting and official data do not give a single, uncontested projected total for U.S. deportations in 2026; instead they offer competing estimates and policy signals ranging from specific agency targets (1,000,000 removals per year in DHS budget requests) to independent projections and administrative tallies that imply much lower or widely varying totals (ICE operational data, CBO demographic adjustments, and media tallies) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Analysts and outlets disagree about what counts as a “deportation” (removals vs. voluntary departures vs. self-deportation), which produces sharply different headline numbers in 2026 reporting [5] [3].
1. What official documents and the administration have signaled: a 1,000,000‑per‑year enforcement goal
The Department of Homeland Security budget justification and some administration statements have been interpreted as supporting a strategy of roughly 1,000,000 removals annually; outside researchers and policy analysts cite those budgetary requests when describing an administration target for FY2026 removals [1]. The fiscal request language and related press materials have been used by advocates and researchers to infer an ambitious enforcement goal [1].
2. What operational data from ICE and DHS actually show (and their limits)
ICE publishes Arrests, Removal, Detention and Alternatives statistics but cautions that data fluctuate until a fiscal year is “locked”; the public portal is the primary operational source for arrests and removals but does not by itself resolve policy‑level projections for 2026 [2]. DHS’s own releases in late 2025 claimed the agency was “on pace” to deport nearly 600,000 people in the administration’s first year back, and DHS touted large totals including voluntary departures, but those releases bundle different categories (voluntary self‑deportation, returns, and formal removals) into broad claims [3].
3. Independent media tallies and watchdogs: large but inconsistent totals
Investigations and media outlets reported tens of thousands of arrests and deportations tied to specific events—e.g., The Guardian’s analysis of the 2025 government shutdown found ICE arrested and detained ~54,000 people and deported ~56,000 during that period—illustrating that short‑term operations can produce big, measurable spikes but not a single year‑end projection for 2026 [6]. Policy trackers and NGOs also note record growth in detention capacity and rates that could enable far larger removal numbers than seen in prior years [7].
4. How analysts and modelers translate policy into projected removals
Economic and demographic modelers produce different 2026 scenarios depending on assumptions. For example, the Congressional Budget Office’s demographic update adjusts net immigration downward and estimates interior removals and other flows that feed into broader population projections—its methods imply many fewer migrants in future counts but do not present a single deportation forecast for 2026 [4]. Academic and policy models (e.g., Penn Wharton or other budget models) explore scenarios like percentage‑of‑population removals over multiple years to show macroeconomic effects, but those are scenario exercises rather than an agreed operational target [8].
5. Counting disagreements: removals vs. voluntary departures vs. “self‑deportation”
A central reason for divergent 2026 figures is definitional: DHS and its supporters sometimes mix formal removals with voluntary departures and “self‑deportation” to produce larger headline totals, a practice criticized by analysts for exaggerating comparisons to past years [5] [3]. The Dispatch and other analysts have specifically pointed out that DHS’s public math often conflates different categories, making it hard to compare year‑to‑year or to treat a single number as the authoritative “projected deportations” total [5].
6. What the major outlets and experts warn about enforcement capacity and political will
Reporting and expert commentary indicate the administration has expanded detention capacity and enforcement operations—detainee counts rose sharply in 2025 and could reach far higher levels by January 2026—suggesting the logistical capability to increase removals, even if final totals depend on legal injunctions, court rulings, and operational restraints [7]. NPR and others have highlighted plans—controversial both legally and politically—to use National Guard or other forces to assist enforcement; such measures could affect removal rates if implemented, but they also raise legal challenges and political backlash [9].
7. Bottom line for someone asking “what’s projected for 2026?”
There is no single, universally accepted projection in public sources: some government budget documents and administration statements imply a goal of roughly 1,000,000 removals per year [1]; DHS press releases and operational claims cite totals approaching or exceeding several hundred thousand when including voluntary departures [3]; independent analyses and watchdogs warn that DHS’s “fuzzy math” and mixed counting undermine direct comparisons [5]. Readers should therefore treat any single headline number for 2026 with caution and check whether it refers to formal removals, voluntary departures, or combined categories [5] [3].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a single authoritative “projected number” for 2026 that all parties accept; instead the public record contains agency targets, administrative claims, media tallies, and model scenarios that point in different directions [1] [3] [5].