What proportion of reported rapes are prosecuted in northern ireland?
Executive summary
The clearest headline figure in recent official reporting is that in 2022/23 only 76 of 767 alleged rape cases — 9.9% — met the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) “test for prosecution,” a commonly reported measure of the proportion of recorded rape allegations that progress to a prosecutorial decision to charge [1] [2]. That low single-year figure sits alongside a shifting statistical picture: prosecution rates for rape have fluctuated year-to-year (higher in some years), while police-recorded rapes have risen, complicating simple comparisons [2] [3] [4].
1. What “prosecuted” means in PPS and police statistics
The PPS distinguishes between police-recorded incidents, files submitted to prosecutors, suspects charged or reported, and the narrower subset that “meet the test for prosecution” — the latter being the figure most often reported as the prosecution rate; in 2022/23 that test was met in 76 of 767 rape files (9.9%), while the PPS and police also report larger counts such as suspects charged or reported and files received that use different denominators and therefore produce different ratios [2] [1] [5].
2. Recent year-to-year variation: a volatile series, not a single trend
Prosecution proportions for rape in Northern Ireland have not been constant: the PPS reported 76 cases (9.9%) meeting the prosecution test in 2022/23, up from or down against other years depending on the metric used — for example 103 cases (17.3%) met the test in 2021/22 according to PPS commentary, and earlier years showed different percentages [2]. Separate measures such as suspects charged or reported for rape numbered 650 of 1,681 suspects in 2023/24, illustrating how choice of numerator and denominator materially changes the “prosecution rate” someone cites [5].
3. The wider caseload context: more reports, complex files
Police-recorded rape has risen in recent years — for example PSNI figures show over a thousand rapes in 2023/24 and the year to March 2023 was also at historically high levels — meaning prosecutors now face a larger and often older/historical caseload, which the PPS says are “challenging cases” with particular evidential and welfare considerations [4] [3] [6]. The PPS received substantially more files involving sexual offences in recent reporting years and noted that increases in reporting (including non-recent allegations) change the composition and complexity of work ahead of prosecution decisions [6] [7].
4. Outcomes when cases proceed to court: convictions but small bases for rape
When sexual offence files reach court, overall conviction rates for sexual offences in recent years have been in the 70–74% band, but the absolute number of rape convictions is small relative to reports — in 2023/24 there were 86 defendants in the Crown Court for rape, 54 were convicted of at least one offence and 26 were convicted specifically of rape (30.2% of those Crown Court rape defendants) — highlighting that a sizeable share of prosecutions that do proceed can still result in acquittal or conviction of alternative charges [5] [8].
5. Why the prosecution rate is low — and what the figures do not by themselves prove
Officials and commentators point to a range of explanations for a low prosecution-rate metric: evidential difficulties, delays, the prevalence of non-recent allegations, and victims’ reluctance or withdrawal; the PPS stresses that decisions are taken against the statutory test for prosecution and that more reports can paradoxically depress the “prosecuted proportion” even if more allegations are being investigated [2] [6]. The sources do not support any single causal claim about every factor’s size of effect, and they underscore that different data definitions (recorded offence, file received, suspect charged, test met, court conviction) produce different percentages — so a single “prosecution rate” must be read with the chosen denominator in mind [5] [2].
6. Bottom line and data limitations
The most direct, commonly cited metric in recent PPS reporting is that 9.9% of alleged rape files met the prosecution test in 2022/23 (76 of 767) [1] [2]; earlier and subsequent years show higher or lower percentages depending on the metric and year (for example 17.3% in 2021/22, 11.4% in 2020/21 in other summaries) and police-recorded rape totals have been rising [2] [9] [3] [4]. The available sources therefore answer the question but also make clear that “what proportion are prosecuted?” depends on whether one compares police-recorded rapes, files submitted to PPS, suspects charged, or cases that meet the PPS prosecution test — the 9.9% figure applies to the latter for 2022/23 [1] [2].