What is the recidivism rate among deported immigrants who re-enter California?
Executive summary
Available reporting and government data in the provided sources do not contain a direct, documented recidivism rate specifically for deported immigrants who re-enter California; sources discuss broader deportation numbers, ICE categories (which include repeat re‑entrants), and state recidivism for former prisoners but do not measure post‑deportation re‑entry recidivism within California (not found in current reporting) [1] [2] [3]. Federal and local coverage instead documents large numbers of removals and picks‑ups from California prisons (9,000+ transfers since 2019; 1,217 picked up in 2025 to date) and notes ICE tracks “reentry after deportation” as a classification but provides no California‑specific recidivism percent for that population [4] [3] [1].
1. No direct stat exists in these reports — the dataset is different
None of the available sources reports a single, state‑level “recidivism rate” for deported immigrants who later re‑enter California. ICE’s statistics page notes one enforcement category explicitly covers people who “have repeatedly violated U.S. law by reentering after deportation,” but ICE materials and the other articles use that as a classification for enforcement purposes rather than producing a recidivism percentage for California re‑entrants [1]. California prison and justice reporting focus on counts of transfers and arrests, not a measured re‑entry‑after‑deportation recidivism rate [4] [3].
2. What the available sources do quantify
State reporting and journalism in the set quantify related but different phenomena: California prisons have handed more than 9,000 people with serious criminal backgrounds to ICE since Gov. Newsom took office, and in 2025 ICE picked up at least 1,217 inmates released from California state custody — these are transfer and removal counts, not post‑removal re‑entry rates [4] [3]. ICE’s national statistics classify some enforcement targets as repeat re‑entrants, which signals the agency tracks re‑entry as an operational category but does not produce a public recidivism metric in these excerpts [1].
3. Why a recidivism rate is hard to produce from these sources
Measuring “recidivism among deported immigrants who re‑enter California” requires linking international removals, border‑crossing or re‑entry incidents, and later criminal justice contacts inside California — across federal immigration databases and state/local criminal justice data. The available coverage shows separate data streams: ICE classifications and removal counts on one hand, and California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) recidivism analyses on the other (the CDCR reports overall three‑year recidivism at 39.1% for released prisoners and lower rates for reentry program participants), but those CDCR numbers concern returns to criminal custody, not immigration re‑entry after deportation [2] [1]. Therefore the sources do not supply the integrated numerator/denominator necessary to calculate the specific rate (not found in current reporting) [2] [1].
4. Competing perspectives and implicit agendas in the coverage
Advocacy and policy coverage frame the question differently. Pro‑enforcement reporting and ICE classifications emphasize repeat re‑entrants as security‑relevant categories that justify continued interior enforcement [1]. California‑based reporting and advocacy pieces stress family and economic impacts of deportations and highlight that many recent ICE arrests target people without criminal records — suggesting deportation policy affects broad swaths of communities, not only repeat criminal re‑entrants [4] [5] [6]. Stakeholders pushing for expanded enforcement highlight counts of transfers and removals; immigrant advocates and state reports emphasize due process, sanctuary tensions, and economic and social costs [4] [7] [6].
5. What numbers you can cite from these sources instead
If you need concrete, cited figures from the available material: state reports and coverage show California prisons transferred more than 9,000 people to ICE since 2019 and ICE picked up 1,217 people from CDCR so far in 2025 [4] [3]. CDCR’s recent recidivism reporting documents a 39.1% overall three‑year recidivism rate for released inmates and lower rates for participants in reentry programs — but that pertains to criminal recidivism after incarceration, not re‑entry following deportation [2].
6. How to get the precise answer you asked for
To produce the specific recidivism rate you requested would require coordinated data access not present in these sources: ICE enforcement databases on removals and re‑entry incidents, plus California criminal justice records and/or police/ERO arrest records indicating whether an arrestee had been previously deported and later re‑entered. The current reporting signals those data exist in different agencies’ systems but does not publish a synthesized California rate [1] [3]. If you want, I can draft a targeted FOIA/data request template or a list of specific agency contacts and datasets to query (not found in current reporting) [1] [3].