How does right-wing violence in 2025 compare to previous years?
Executive summary
Data through mid-2025 show a surprising shift in incident counts: several research teams (notably CSIS) reported that far-left attacks and plots outnumbered far-right ones in the first half of 2025, a reversal not seen in about 30 years [1] [2]. But multiple experts and datasets caution that right-wing extremism has historically produced far more incidents and far more fatalities, and that the 2025 reversal may reflect definitional choices, short time windows, and declines in other categories rather than a durable trend [3] [4] [5].
1. A striking numeric reversal — but narrowly measured
CSIS’s analysis of 750 incidents from 1994–July 4, 2025, found that left-wing incidents in early 2025 outnumbered right-wing incidents for the first time in more than three decades, driven by a small number of left-wing attacks and a sharp drop in counted right‑wing incidents in that window [1] [2]. FactCheck.org summarized CSIS’s core finding: between Jan. 1 and July 4, 2025 there was a steep decline in right‑wing incidents (one in that period) and more left‑wing incidents (five in that period) — a pattern that produces the appearance of reversal when using that specific timeframe [6].
2. Context: frequency versus lethality and historical baselines
Researchers emphasize that frequency alone masks impact: long‑running datasets show right‑wing extremist violence has been more frequent and far deadlier in recent years, accounting for the majority of political‑killing fatalities in 2022–2024 and across much of the post‑2016 period [3] [7]. Analysts warn that even a modest uptick in left‑wing incidents will look large when starting from very low baseline counts, so the 2025 uptick does not equal the historical scale or lethality of prior right‑wing campaigns [8] [9].
3. Methodology and definitional debates matter — they drive different headlines
Critics and commentators highlight that how researchers classify incidents — what counts as “left‑wing” or “right‑wing,” whether plots are included, and whether unprosecuted or nonfatal acts are tallied — materially changes results. CSIS’s definition of left‑wing terrorism includes a wide set of motivations (environmentalism, anti‑fascism, black nationalism, etc.), which some scholars say raises attention to emergent threats but also widens the category compared with other trackers [6] [4]. Opponents argue some datasets include low‑level acts or disputed items that skew comparisons [10] [11].
4. Short‑term volatility: declines in other categories and one‑off events
Analysts note 2025’s pattern reflects volatility: declines in jihadist incidents after earlier peaks, and a sudden drop in right‑wing incidents counted in the Jan–July slice, make left‑wing incidents a larger share of a smaller overall pie [4]. CSIS itself and commentators label explanations for the 2025 decline in right‑wing incidents “speculative,” warning that temporary political dynamics — not a structural end to right‑wing violence — are likely drivers [4] [8].
5. Fatalities and high‑profile attacks change perceptions
High‑profile killings in 2025 (e.g., Charlie Kirk’s assassination and other politically charged murders) intensified public attention and political contention about who is most to blame; those events can make rare incidents loom much larger in public view even when they remain numerically uncommon [3] [2]. Scholars point out that certain jihadist or right‑wing outlier attacks historically created spikes in deaths that far exceed counts from many small incidents, underscoring the importance of measuring both frequency and lethality [5].
6. Public opinion and partisan lenses shape interpretation
Surveys show Americans widely perceive politically motivated violence as increasing, but there is no consensus about its source: many view both left and right as problems, with strong partisan splits in attribution [12] [13]. That polarization influences which datasets and headlines gain traction among different audiences — some emphasize the CSIS finding of a left‑side rise, others emphasize long‑term right‑wing lethality [2] [3].
7. What to watch next — indicators that would confirm a real shift
To judge whether 2025 marks a durable change rather than a blip, researchers say watch multi‑year trends in (a) absolute counts of ideologically motivated attacks and plots beyond single half‑year slices, (b) fatality totals by ideology, and (c) standardized classifications across datasets to reduce definitional noise [4] [6]. Several analysts urge caution and continued monitoring rather than concluding equivalence with past right‑wing peaks [9] [5].
Limitations: available sources do not provide full-year 2025 totals beyond July, and they disagree on classification and interpretation; this summary synthesizes those competing findings and flags methodological caveats rather than asserting a single definitive trend [1] [4] [6].