Fact check: Sex offenders per million: Biological women: 3 Biological men: 395 Trans women: 1,916

1. Summary of the results

The specific numbers presented in the original statement cannot be directly verified from the provided sources. While there is data suggesting higher rates of sexual offenses among transgender inmates ^[1], the exact per-million figures cited are not supported by the available analyses. Ministry of Justice statistics show that among transgender inmates, approximately 48% were sexual offenders ^[1], but this represents a very specific population and cannot be generalized to the entire transgender community.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several crucial contextual elements are missing from the original statement:

• Victimization Rates: Transgender individuals are actually more likely to be victims of sexual violence, not perpetrators ^{[2] [3]}
• Socioeconomic Factors: Any higher rates of offenses are likely influenced by:
• Workplace discrimination
• Unemployment
• Involvement in sex work due to economic necessity ^[3]
• Statistical Limitations: The available data has significant limitations:
• Small sample sizes
• Potential reporting biases
• Correlation does not equal causation ^[4]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement presents several problematic elements:

• Misleading Presentation: The statement presents raw numbers without crucial context about socioeconomic factors and systemic discrimination ^[3]
• Sample Size Issues: While some data suggests trans women might be 50-550 times more likely to be incarcerated for sexual offenses compared to biological women ^[4], this wide range itself indicates the uncertainty in the data
• Beneficiaries of This Narrative: This type of statistical presentation often benefits:
• Anti-transgender advocacy groups
• Political organizations seeking to restrict transgender rights
• Media outlets seeking sensational headlines

The statement appears designed to suggest inherent criminality in transgender individuals, while the sources actually paint a more complex picture of societal discrimination and victimization ^{[2] [3]}.