Which US states had the highest firearm homicide rates per 100,000 residents in 2024?
Executive summary
Available reports show that states and districts with the highest firearm homicide rates in recent years include Mississippi and Louisiana (Statista listing Mississippi at 29.7 and Louisiana at 28.2 per 100,000 as of 2024) and Washington, D.C., which other analyses place among the very highest — DC is reported at 28.5 per 100,000 (Statista; Visual Capitalist) [1] [2]. Different data providers and methodologies (state vs. district, single-year vs. multi-year averages, age-adjusted vs. crude rates) produce differing rankings; RAND, CDC-based compilations and non‑profits note wide variation across sources [3] [2].
1. What the headline numbers say — two competing snapshots
One common, widely cited snapshot lists Mississippi as the top state for “gun violence rate per 100,000 residents” in 2024 at 29.7, followed by Louisiana at 28.2 (Statista) [1]. A separate mapping project that uses USAFacts and other compilations reports Washington, D.C., not a state but the District of Columbia, with a firearms homicide rate of 28.5 per 100,000 (Visual Capitalist) [2]. Both figures are strikingly high, but they are not directly comparable without knowing how each source calculated denominators, whether numbers are age‑adjusted, or whether they count multi‑year averages versus single years [2] [1].
2. Why different sources give different top lists — methodology matters
Sources use different underlying data and adjustments. RAND’s state firearm mortality tools rely on CDC multiple‑cause death data and employ multi‑year smoothing and subgroup estimation to avoid unstable rates in small populations [3]. Visual Capitalist and USAFacts emphasize 2023–2024 snapshots and may report crude firearm homicide rates; Statista provides a 2024 state‑level rate but does not publish the full methodology in the snippet provided here [2] [1] [3]. These methodological choices — single year vs. averaged years, crude vs. age‑adjusted, and whether territories or DC are included — change rankings materially.
3. Local extremes matter — the county story and rural concentrations
National‑level state averages mask extreme variation inside states. Centered county analyses show the highest per‑capita firearm homicide rates can occur in rural counties — for example, Holmes County, Mississippi, was reported as the U.S. county with the highest per‑capita firearm homicide rate in 2024 (over 100 per 100,000 in the American Progress analysis), and several Mississippi counties appear among the worst‑affected [4]. This implies that high state rates often reflect concentrated pockets of violence rather than uniform statewide problems [4].
4. Policy and socio‑demographic context — what researchers highlight
Public‑health and policy researchers link state differences to socio‑economic conditions, demographics, and firearm policy environments. Johns Hopkins and RAND syntheses state that permissive carry laws and higher household firearm prevalence are associated with higher firearm homicides, while laws strengthening background checks and purchase permits are associated with reductions in homicide rates in some studies [5] [3]. These claims reflect correlations reported in the literature; sources differ on causal interpretation and policy effect sizes [5] [3].
5. Data limitations you should know before citing a rank
Available sources warn about comparability problems: small populations (like DC or rural counties) produce volatile rates; the CDC and other databases use different denominators and suppress low counts for privacy; and some trackers (e.g., Gun Violence Archive) exclude suicides while others aggregate all firearm deaths [6] [7] [3]. The Statista snippet gives headline numbers but does not include methodology here; Visual Capitalist cites USAFacts for 2023 rates; RAND and CDC‑based tools use multi‑year smoothing to avoid instability [1] [2] [3].
6. How to report responsibly — recommended approach
When reporting which states “had the highest firearm homicide rates in 2024,” specify the metric (firearm homicide per 100,000), the data year, whether the figure is age‑adjusted or a crude rate, and whether DC or territories are included. Cite the exact source and note methodological caveats: for example, “Statista reports Mississippi 29.7 and Louisiana 28.2 per 100,000 in 2024” and “Visual Capitalist reports Washington, D.C. at 28.5 per 100,000” while adding that RAND and CDC tools smooth small‑area volatility [1] [2] [3].
7. Bottom line — consensus and disagreement
Consensus across sources is that the highest firearm homicide burdens cluster in parts of the Deep South and in certain urban districts (Mississippi/Louisiana and Washington, D.C., appear at or near the top in different datasets) [1] [2]. Disagreement is substantive on exact ranks and magnitudes because of differing inclusion rules and statistical smoothing; readers should treat single‑year state rankings as indicative rather than definitive and consult the underlying methodology before drawing policy conclusions [3] [4].