How have Sweden's homicide rates per 100,000 changed from 2010 to 2023 and what explains the trend?

1. A decade-long trajectory: modest rise after a low point

Sweden’s homicide rate hit a low around 2012 (0.71 per 100,000) and then climbed in subsequent years, peaking in recent years near 1.2 per 100,000 (notably in 2020) before registering 1.15 per 100,000 in 2023; absolute confirmed lethal-violence cases were 121 in 2023 ^{[1] [5] [2]}. Macrotrends also records the 2020 rate at 1.20 per 100,000, illustrating the mid-decade uptick that reversed an earlier downward trend ^[6].

2. How big is the change — significant or modest?

Numerically the change is small in absolute terms: shifts of a few tenths of a homicide per 100,000 translate to only a few dozen additional fatalities annually (Sweden had 121 confirmed lethal-violence cases in 2023) ^{[2] [5]}. Statistically and politically, however, the reversal of the long downward European trend matters: Brå (the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention) and analysts stress that Sweden’s previously steady decline stalled and began rising again from about 2013 ^[3].

3. The proximate driver: firearms and organised/gang violence

Swedish official data and researchers single out increased gun homicides as the main proximate cause of the recent rise. Brå reports firearm homicides have continued to increase and that the upward trend in gun homicides since around 2005 started to influence total homicide figures substantially after 2013 ^{[4] [7]}. Commentators and research cited by The Guardian link much of the lethal violence to gang conflicts over narcotics and territorial control ^[8].

4. Where it’s happening and who is affected

Analyses point to concentrated violence in certain vulnerable urban areas and Sweden’s largest cities — Malmö, Stockholm and Gothenburg — where gang conflicts and shootings have been most visible ^{[9] [8]}. Brå’s breakdown shows male victims remain the majority and that patterns of lethal violence have shifted from spontaneous fights and nightlife-related homicides in the early 1990s to more organised-crime-related killings in the 2010s ^{[7] [3]}.

5. Counting rules, international comparisons and interpretation cautions

Swedish statistics register all events with a lethal outcome that police investigate as potential homicide or manslaughter, even when later classified as suicides or accidents; this expansive counting can yield higher reported homicide counts compared with countries using stricter initial filters ^{[10] [11]}. At the same time, several sources emphasise that despite the recent rise Sweden still has a relatively low homicide rate by long-run and many international standards — though higher than some Nordic neighbours ^{[10] [3]}.

6. Explanations under debate: structural, policing and social factors

Researchers and Brå point to a mix of causes: expansion of organised crime and narcotics markets, a rise in firearm availability used in gang conflicts, social and economic concentration in “vulnerable areas,” and changes in the nature of criminal networks ^{[7] [4] [8]}. Some reporting highlights political debate over migration and integration as a contested explanation — the Guardian notes politicians from different sides attribute causes differently — but available sources do not present a single agreed causal model and Brå has not identified a single driver beyond the growth in gun-related organised crime ^{[8] [3]}.

7. What the official agencies recommend or emphasise

Brå’s research and statistics emphasise targeted interventions: stronger measures against organised criminal networks, firearms control and policing strategies in vulnerable areas, as well as social prevention in communities most affected — while cautioning that homicide trends are complex and have varied drivers over decades ^{[7] [4]}.

8. Bottom line for readers: trend, scale and uncertainty

The homicide rate climbed from a low around 0.7/100,000 in 2012 to about 1.15/100,000 in 2023, with 121 confirmed lethal-violence cases that year; the increase is concentrated in firearm and gang-related killings and in specific urban areas ^{[1] [2] [4]}. However, Sweden’s overall homicide level remains low in absolute terms and international context matters; causal explanations are debated and official sources point primarily to organised gun violence rather than a single social cause ^{[3] [7]}.

Limitations: this summary relies on Swedish official statistics and major English-language coverage in the provided set; other datasets or later Brå publications might add nuance not present here — available sources do not mention some debated political attributions in detail beyond noting the debate ^[8].