Fact check: What are the most recent rape statistics in Sweden and how do they relate to immigration?

1. Numbers on the rise: What the official crime statistics actually report

Sweden’s crime statistics indicate a notable upward movement in reported sexual offences and rape in 2024, with the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention documenting 25,879 reported sexual offences and 10,167 reported rapes — each figure up about 7% from 2023 ^[1]. A separate reporting period covering the first half of 2024 also recorded a 4% increase in crimes against persons, including sexual violence, while disaggregated age-sex figures show a 1% rise in rape reports for women 18+ and an 18% rise for men 18+ ^[4]. These official tallies reflect reported incidents, not proven guilt, and are influenced by reporting rates, changes in legal definitions, recording practices, and police activity. The statistics are recent and administrative, but they do not by themselves identify causes or the demographic makeup of suspects or convicts.

2. Conviction studies: High share of convicted individuals with foreign backgrounds

Several 2025 academic studies converge on a striking finding: around 63% of those convicted of rape in Sweden have an immigrant or foreign background, and some analyses state nearly two-thirds of convicted rapists are migrants or second‑generation immigrants ^{[2] [5] [6] [7]}. These studies report a higher conviction likelihood for people who arrived after age 15 and indicate that socioeconomic disadvantage alone does not fully explain the overrepresentation. The research provides conviction-level evidence, not population-level incidence, and investigators note nuance such as the decline in conviction likelihood the longer an immigrant has been in Sweden ^[2]. The studies are recent and repeatedly referenced, but they require careful interpretation about selection, causality, and broader social context.

3. Victim reports and survey trends: Mixed signals from self-reported exposure

Population surveys and victim studies present a different angle: the Swedish Crime Survey 2024 found a decrease in self-reported exposure to sexual offences, from 4.7% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023, with women reporting higher exposure than men (6.3% vs. 1.0%) ^[3]. A rape-victim interview study reported 9,635 rapes in 2022 and emphasized the very low conviction rate—around 5% of rape charges resulting in conviction—highlighting gaps between reports, prosecutions, and convictions ^[8]. Another migrant‑focused study found elevated victimization among young migrants, with roughly 25% reporting sexual violence and about 9% reporting rape, flagging disparate victim experiences within migrant populations ^[9]. These varying measures show that reported crime, survey exposure, and convictions can move in different directions.

4. Interpreting the link to immigration: Correlation, not causation

The body of evidence shows correlation between immigrant background and overrepresentation among convicted rapists, but it does not establish a simple causal pathway from immigration to higher rape incidence. Authors of recent studies point to complex, interacting factors including age at arrival, integration, legal and social contexts, and reporting differences ^{[2] [6]}. The conviction-focused research controls for some socioeconomic factors and still finds an overrepresentation, which strengthens an argument that socioeconomic disadvantage does not fully account for the pattern ^[6]. Yet the official rise in reported rapes in 2024 is an aggregate trend driven by many influences—changes in reporting, policing, definitions, and underlying behavior—so attributing year-to-year increases primarily to immigration is unwarranted without finer-grained causal evidence.

5. Where debates and potential agendas influence interpretation

Public and political debate over these findings is heated because statistics on sexual violence intersect with migration politics. Studies emphasizing the high share of convicted individuals with foreign backgrounds are sometimes used to argue for immigration restrictions, while victim-survey findings and low conviction rates are mobilized by advocates for improved policing and survivor support ^{[5] [8] [3]}. The research community largely frames results cautiously: many papers highlight policy-relevant interpretations such as the need for integration, targeted prevention, improved reporting processes, and more research into causal mechanisms ^{[2] [6]}. Readers should therefore note that selective citation of either conviction shares or rising report counts can support competing agendas; the full evidence base points to a multifaceted problem requiring nuanced policy responses.

6. Bottom line and what’s missing: Evidence gaps and next steps for clarity

The clearest empirical facts are that reported rapes rose in 2024 (10,167 reported) and that recent studies find a substantial share of rape convictions involve people with immigrant backgrounds (about 63%) ^{[1] [5]}. What remains uncertain are the precise causal links between immigration and trends in reported sexual violence, and how much of the rise reflects changes in reporting, legal definitions, enforcement, or underlying offending patterns. To move from correlation to explanation, policymakers and researchers need consistently updated, disaggregated data on suspects, victims, time in country, socioeconomic indicators, and prosecutorial outcomes, alongside robust longitudinal studies. Only with that layered evidence can Sweden distinguish policy measures to reduce sexual violence while avoiding simplistic attributions.