What does Texas data (2013–2023) show about homicide convictions by immigration status and how have scholars interpreted that evidence?
Executive summary
Texas Department of Public Safety data analyzed by researchers show that, over 2013–2022, people identified as undocumented (illegal) immigrants were convicted of homicide at a lower per‑capita rate (2.2 per 100,000) than native‑born Texans (3.0 per 100,000) and higher than legal immigrants (1.2 per 100,000), according to a Cato Institute analysis [1] [2]. Scholars and fact‑checkers agree on two things: the homicide figures favor lower rates for undocumented people versus U.S.‑born individuals, and the result is sensitive to how researchers count people and crimes, producing persistent scholarly debate [3] [4] [5].
1. What the raw Texas numbers show
A systematic read of Texas conviction and arrest records used in multiple studies finds lower homicide conviction and arrest rates for undocumented immigrants relative to U.S.‑born residents: Cato reports a 2013–2022 homicide conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants versus 3.0 for native‑born Americans, with legal immigrants at 1.2 per 100,000 [1] [2], while NIJ‑funded and peer‑reviewed work using Texas data similarly finds undocumented arrest rates for homicide well below those of U.S.‑born citizens (1.9 vs. 4.8 per 100,000 in one study) [6] [3].
2. Why scholars still quarrel about interpretation
Researchers dispute whether those headline rates fully capture reality because of identification lags, denominators, and counting errors: the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) argues that undocumented offenders are often only identified after conviction or while imprisoned, which can raise conviction counts as records “catch up,” producing higher apparent homicide rates for undocumented people if delayed identifications are included [4]. Cato’s author Alex Nowrasteh counters that some prior critiques overcounted offenders and underestimated the undocumented population, producing inflated rates, and he treats Texas homicide convictions as the most reliable subset because prison authorities thoroughly check immigration status for homicide cases [7] [2].
3. Methodological fault lines: numerator, denominator, and timing
The core methodological disagreements revolve around three technical issues: the numerator (which convictions to include and whether DPS, TDCJ, or other checks double‑count or miss entries), the denominator (estimates of how many undocumented people live in Texas vary across Pew, CMS, DHS and influence per‑capita rates), and timing (identifications that occur years after arrest create “catch‑up” effects, especially visible in 2022 data) — all of which CIS, Cato, and academic papers explicitly discuss as drivers of divergent conclusions [4] [1] [2].
4. Broader academic consensus and peer‑reviewed evidence
Beyond think‑tank work, peer‑reviewed studies using Texas Department of Public Safety arrest records find a consistent pattern: undocumented immigrants generally have lower arrest and conviction rates for homicide and most violent crimes than native‑born citizens, a conclusion reported in PNAS and NIJ‑summarized research that frames the lower rate as robust across multiple analytic choices [3] [6]. Those studies caution, however, that homicide is a rare event with volatile year‑to‑year rates and that measurement uncertainty remains material to policy claims [3].
5. How interpretation maps onto policy narratives and agendas
The debate has clear political stakes: Cato’s analysis is widely cited to rebut claims linking immigration to crime, while CIS emphasizes undercounts to argue the opposite; fact‑checkers and neutral outlets note both the lower rates in multiple studies and the sensitivity of results to measurement choices, warning against sweeping national extrapolations from state data [5] [4] [1]. Each source’s institutional perspective—Cato’s libertarian policy posture and CIS’s focus on immigration restriction—shapes which data limitations they foreground and which adjustments they advocate [5] [4].
6. Bottom line for readers and policymakers
The best reading of available Texas data through 2022 is that undocumented immigrants were convicted of homicide at lower rates, not higher, than native‑born Texans, but that conclusion is contingent on how researchers count people and crimes and on lags in identification that can distort recent years’ tallies; multiple peer‑reviewed and government‑funded analyses converge on the lower‑rate finding even as methodological disputes persist [1] [3] [6] [4]. Where the record is thin—especially beyond 2022 and for crimes other than homicide—scholars urge caution and further transparent data releases from state agencies [1] [2].