Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What is the rape conviction rate in the UK 2024?
Executive Summary
The headline “rape conviction rate in the UK for 2024” depends on which denominator is used: prosecutions completed or police-recorded offences. Prosecution-based conviction rates reported by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) in 2024 cluster around 51–62% depending on the case-definition and quarter, while outcomes measured against all rape offences recorded by police give a much lower charge/conviction rate of roughly 2–4%. Different reports cover different time windows and use distinct metrics; they are complementary but lead to apparently conflicting headline figures [1] [2] [3].
1. Why two very different headline figures are both “true” — courtroom versus recorded-offence math
CPS operational data counts convictions relative to prosecutions completed: when the CPS reports a conviction rate of about 58% for rape-flagged cases or 51% for adult-rape flagged cases, that is convictions divided by completed prosecutions or completed cases referred to court (Q1/Q2 2024–25 CPS summaries) [1] [4]. By contrast, official crime-outcomes datasets published by police/Home Office count outcomes against the much larger pool of police-recorded rape offences. When you measure charges or charge/summons outcomes as a share of recorded rapes, the rate is tiny — in the low single digits (about 2.6%–2.8% for year ending March 2024/25 initially published then revised upward over time as cases close) — because most recorded offences never reach charge for evidential or other reasons [3] [5] [6]. Both perspectives are factually correct but answer different questions: how successful prosecutors are when cases get to court versus how many recorded incidents ultimately produce a formal charge.
2. What CPS data says about prosecutions and convictions in 2024
CPS management reports for 2024 and early 2025 show increases in conviction volumes but small falls or stability in conviction rates across quarters. For the year ending September 2023 the CPS counted 3,521 rape charges leading to 2,008 convictions — a conviction rate reported at 61.7% in that dataset, down from higher prior-year figures [2]. Quarter-level CPS summaries for 2024–25 show conviction rates for rape-flagged cases around 57–58% and for adult-rape flagged cases around 49–51%, with conviction volumes rising in several quarters even where percentage rates edged down [1] [4]. The CPS cautions its operational figures are provisional and can be affected by case coding, timeliness, and later adjustments [1].
3. What police/Home Office crime-outcomes data reveals — the tiny charge/share picture
Home Office-style crime outcomes count final outcomes assigned to police-recorded rape offences and show a very low charge/summons rate. For offences recorded in the year ending March 2024, the initial published charge/summons rate was 2.6%, and later for the year ending March 2025 the proportion with a charge/summons rose slightly to 2.8% as more investigations closed; historical revisions often push these percentages up modestly as long investigations conclude [3] [5] [6]. These datasets also show long average investigation times — hundreds of days — and a high share of cases closed for evidential difficulties, explaining why recorded-rape-to-charge conversion is so low [3] [5].
4. Reconciling the story — volume versus rate and what the public hears
The apparent contradiction arises because the CPS percentages describe performance once a prosecution is brought, while crime-outcome percentages describe the probability that a recorded rape results in any charge. The CPS shows reasonable conviction rates given prosecutions, whereas police-outcome statistics expose that only a tiny share of recorded rapes ever progress to charge, driven by evidential difficulties, victim attrition, and long investigation timelines. Government and parliamentary analyses highlight both trends: conviction volumes have risen in some periods even as conviction rates fell modestly, while overall charge rates against recorded offences remain stubbornly low [2] [7].
5. Limits, provisionality and the policy implications you should note
All datasets are qualified: CPS management statistics are operational and provisional, crime-outcomes are revised as long-running investigations close, and quarter-to-quarter movements can reflect coding changes, new offences (e.g., Online Safety Act impacts), and case processing delays. Reporting dates matter: figures attributed to “2024” may refer to the year ending September 2023, financial quarters 2024–25, or calendar-year outcomes published in 2025; this timing shifts the headline number materially [2] [1] [3]. The combined evidence points to a justice-process gap: when cases are prosecuted, conviction rates are in the mid-range (roughly half to two-thirds), but the proportion of all recorded rapes that ever reach charge remains very low, a distinction that should guide public debate and policy responses [1] [5].
6. Bottom line for readers wanting a single figure
If you mean “conviction rate once a case is prosecuted,” cite CPS figures around 51–62% depending on case definition and quarter. If you mean “chance a police-recorded rape becomes a charge/conviction,” the relevant Home Office/crime-outcome metric is much lower, about 2–4%, as of the latest published outcome tables and subsequent revisions [1] [3] [5]. Both figures are accurate within their contexts; the policy focus should be on closing the large gap between recorded incidents and charges while maintaining fair, effective prosecutions [2] [7].