How has the UK rape conviction rate changed since 2010?

Executive summary — Short answer up front

Since 2010 the UK has seen more rape cases enter the criminal justice system but no clear, sustained rise in conviction rates: prosecutions and charges have increased in recent years while reported conviction-rate indicators fluctuate and remain constrained by low charge rates and case attrition. Data sources disagree on magnitude and trend because changes in police recording, victim reporting, and differing datasets (police-recorded offences, Crown Prosecution Service prosecutions, Ministry of Justice outcomes) make a single definitive conviction-rate timeline since 2010 difficult to produce from available public figures ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.

1. Why the raw numbers suggest a surge — but not necessarily more convictions

Police-recorded sexual offences have risen substantially over the last decade, with the Office for National Statistics noting a notable increase in the year to March 2025, partly driven by new offences under the Online Safety Act 2023; this spike inflates the pool of cases that could lead to prosecutions but does not directly change conviction rates ^[1]. The End-to-End Rape Review progress update documents a sharp rise in referrals and prosecutions in 2021–22 — adult rape prosecutions rose 44% year-on-year and were reported as about 4% higher than 2010 levels — indicating more cases reaching prosecutorial stages ^[2]. These volume changes create the appearance of progress in the pipeline while obscuring whether the share of cases that result in conviction has improved.

2. Prosecution and charge trends: a partial rebound, not a transformation

Crown Prosecution Service and Home Office figures show prosecutions and charges increased after 2019, reversing earlier declines: referrals, charges and prosecutions rose substantially in 2021–22 and into 2022–23, and some quarterly CPS summaries show conviction percentages around the high 60s for short periods (for example a drop from 70.7% to 68.3% across two CPS quarters in 2021–22) ^[4]. The Home Office reports an increase in the proportion of rape offences resulting in charge or summons from 1.3% to 2.1% between the year ending March 2022 and March 2023, an important relative increase but still a very low absolute charge rate ^[3]. These figures indicate a system processing more cases, yet the overall proportion of recorded offences that end in charge or conviction remains limited.

3. Conviction-rate measurement problems: multiple datasets, competing signals

Different official datasets measure different things: police-recorded offences track reports to police; the Crime Survey for England and Wales estimates prevalence independent of reporting; CPS and Ministry of Justice datasets record prosecutions, charges and outcomes. None of the cited sources provide a single continuous, nationally comparable rape conviction rate from 2010 to 2025, and analysts warn that improved recording practices and legislative additions distort trend comparisons ^{[1] [5]}. The End-to-End Rape Review and government targets (e.g., aiming to return to 2016 levels by 2024) further complicate interpretation because targets reference caseload volumes, not conviction-rate denominators ^[6].

4. Attrition and systemic barriers still depress conviction outcomes

Multiple sources highlight persistent reasons why rising referrals and prosecutions have not translated into a clear conviction-rate surge: high rates of cases closed due to evidential difficulties and victims not supporting further action, long decision times, and potential jury bias. The Home Office notes many sexual offence investigations end without charge, and the CPS and research literature flag jury-related issues and lengthy case progression times ^{[3] [7]}. The End-to-End Rape Review progress update specifically records victims withdrawing at the investigation stage and notes more work is needed to improve the criminal justice response, implying structural limits on conviction-rate improvement ^[2].

5. What the different actors and data imply — and where uncertainties remain

Taken together, the sources show a justice system receiving more rape reports and prosecutorial activity since around 2019–22, modest increases in charge rates, but no clear, sustained national increase in the proportion of recorded rapes that result in conviction since 2010. The picture is mixed because changes in recording, new offences, and fluctuating survey estimates of prevalence mean proportional measures (conviction rates) are sensitive to denominators. To determine a precise conviction-rate trajectory since 2010 would require harmonised Ministry of Justice/CPS outcome series with consistent denominators and accounting for recording changes — data that the cited reports say is fragmented or not directly provided in public summaries ^{[1] [8] [5]}.