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What is the conviction rate of rape in the UK?
Executive summary
Available official data show the proportion of reported rape offences that reach charge/summons is very low (about 2.8% in the year ending March 2025) and conviction rates for prosecutions vary by dataset: the Crown Prosecution Service reported an overall rape conviction rate of 53.4% for prosecutions completed in 2023/24 (1,220 convictions), while police/Home Office outcome data show only a small share of recorded rapes are charged and then progress to court (2.8% charged/summonsed in year ending March 2025) [1] [2]. Reporting and measurement differences mean “conviction rate” can mean different things in different sources — convictions per prosecution, convictions per charge, or convictions per recorded offence — so numbers are often not directly comparable [3] [1].
1. How different official measures produce different “conviction rates”
Official publications use distinct denominators. The CPS reports convictions among prosecutions completed (showing 1,220 convictions and a 53.4% conviction rate in 2023/24), which measures convictions per completed prosecution [2]. The Home Office/ONS crime outcomes data report the proportion of recorded rape offences that are assigned a charged/summonsed outcome (2.8% in year ending March 2025), which is convictions per recorded offence only after further processing and is far lower because so few recorded offences ever reach charging [1]. The CPS also notes it does not routinely publish offence-specific conviction rates in some of its management publications, complicating direct comparisons [3].
2. What the headline numbers mean in practice
A CPS “conviction rate” of roughly 53% in 2023/24 refers to prosecutions that reached court and were completed; the volume of prosecutions and convictions rose in that year even as the percentage rate moved slightly downwards [2]. By contrast, the Criminal Justice System outcome snapshot shows that of all rape offences recorded by police in the year to March 2025, only about 2.8% had a charge/summons outcome assigned by the publication date — meaning most recorded rapes never become charged cases in the short term [1]. Both figures are accurate for what they measure but answer different questions.
3. Recent trends and system pressures
Recorded rape offences have grown dramatically in recent years (Statista/ONS shows a peak of 71,670 in 2024/25), while charges and prosecutions have historically lagged behind — prompting reforms such as Operation Soteria and investment in specialist support [4] [5]. The CPS and government reporting note that increases in referrals and charges followed reform activity, but investigators stress many rape investigations remain open for long periods and outcome rates will change as cases progress [2] [1].
4. Why few recorded rapes become convictions — competing explanations
Analysts and government reviews attribute the gap to multiple factors: long delays in investigations, fewer police referrals to prosecutors, evidential and investigative complexity, and limited specialist capacity; critics argue resourcing cuts and procedural incentives also contributed [2] [6]. The CPS and government cite targeted reforms and increased victim support funding as part of efforts to raise prosecutions and convictions [5]. Independent commentators point to definitional and reporting differences that make cross-country or historical comparisons misleading [7].
5. Beware simplistic headlines like “fewer than 2%”
Some non‑official summaries and media pieces report that “fewer than 2%” of rapes result in conviction; available sources here include a non-official site making that claim [8] but the official Home Office/ONS statistic for charge/summons outcomes is 2.8% for the year ending March 2025 [1], and the CPS’s conviction-per-prosecution figure is about 53.4% for 2023/24 [2]. Thus, depending on whether the denominator is recorded offences, charges, or completed prosecutions, the percentage will differ substantially. Available sources do not mention a single agreed “conviction rate” expressed against all reported rapes without qualification.
6. What to watch next and the limits of current reporting
Look for future quarterly updates to the Crime Outcomes and CPS publications because many rape investigations remain open and published charge/conviction rates can rise as cases are finalised [1] [3]. Also watch evaluation of Operation Soteria and specialist prosecution initiatives cited by government, which aim to change referral and conviction volumes [1] [5]. Note the limits: datasets lag, definitions vary across agencies, and some public summaries collapse distinct measures into an attention-grabbing single percentage — a practice that obscures as much as it reveals [2] [3].
If you want, I can: (a) produce a short table comparing the key measures and their denominators (recorded offences, charges, completed prosecutions) using the cited figures above, or (b) extract and summarise the raw numbers from the CPS and Crime Outcomes publications quarter-by-quarter. Which would be most useful?