Fact check: How have UK sexual assault conviction rates changed since 2020?

1. Why the headline numbers don’t move the same way — charging up, convictions down

Home Office data through the year to March 2025 indicate the charge/summons rate for sexual offences rose from a low point in 2022 to 6.3% in 2024‑25, showing renewed police willingness or capacity to pursue charges ^[1]. At the same time Crown Prosecution Service quarterly figures for Q1 2025‑26 document a modest fall in conviction proportions for rape‑flagged offences to 58.3% and a sharper dip for adult rape to 49.1%, down from Q4 2024‑25 ^[2]. This divergence means more cases are being charged but a lower share of those charged as rape are ending in conviction, driven in part by evidential closures and case attrition earlier in the process ^[1].

2. The long arc since 2020 — decline, partial rebound, and then erosion

Established reporting shows large falls in prosecutions and convictions for rape between 2016–17 and 2020, with prosecutions down 71% and convictions down 64% in that period, leaving a low baseline entering 2020 ^[3]. Post‑2020, the Home Office and CPS data reveal a partial rebound in charge rates after 2022, but CPS conviction percentages for sexual‑offence flags have drifted downward overall since 2020, rather than recovering to earlier levels, implying systemic problems persist even as police activity increases ^{[1] [2]}. The combined picture is one of incremental improvements in one metric offset by deterioration in another.

3. Where the evidential bottleneck bites hardest

Official Home Office outcomes for the year to March 2025 show around 44% of sexual offences and 47% of rape offences closed due to evidential difficulties, far higher than for many other crimes and a key limit on prosecutions and convictions ^[1]. That high rate of evidential closure means the pool of cases capable of reaching charge or trial is constrained, so even rising charge rates may not translate into more convictions if cases lack admissible or sufficient evidence. This explains why modest increases in police charges have not produced proportional conviction gains ^[1].

4. CPS practice changes — trauma awareness and offender focus

Analyses note the Crown Prosecution Service has updated guidance for prosecutors to incorporate trauma‑informed approaches and an offender‑centric focus in rape and sexual offence cases, aiming to improve case handling and outcomes ^[3]. The CPS Q1 2025‑26 report shows conviction rates remain volatile by flag, with adult‑rape convictions particularly affected, indicating that procedural changes take time to affect conviction ratios and may be counterbalanced by other pressures such as evidential shortfalls and caseload volumes ^{[3] [2]}. The guidance adjustments reflect institutional attempts to address deficits identified since 2020.

5. Different lenses — survivors, campaigners, and media coverage

Charities and campaign groups highlight the lived experience behind the statistics, reporting that low charge rates and high evidential closures leave survivors frustrated and hesitant to engage with the justice process ^[4]. Media pieces and FOI‑driven reporting have emphasized headlines such as “less than 3% of sex attacks end in charge,” which spotlight systemic failures and can drive public pressure for reform ^[5]. These narratives exert political and public influence but also reflect selective framing: campaigners stress under‑prosecution while official data reveal nuanced, sometimes improving charge figures alongside stubborn conviction challenges ^{[4] [5]}.

6. Recent quarter‑to‑quarter movement — small but meaningful shifts

CPS quarterly tracking through Q1 2025‑26 shows sexual‑offence conviction rates hovering in the low‑80% range overall but slipping by 0.6 percentage points, while rape‑flagged and adult‑rape conviction rates fell more noticeably over the same quarter ^[2]. The Home Office year‑to‑March figures mark a bigger relative increase in charge rates from 2022 to 2024‑25 yet still leave charge rates well below those for most other offence types ^[1]. The combined recent movement is incremental rather than dramatic, suggesting reforms or operational changes have produced limited short‑term effects.

7. What the data omit and why that matters

Official statistics do not capture the full complexity of what prevents convictions: case quality, investigative resourcing, witness attrition, and delays are only partly visible through charge and conviction rates. The documents note increases in referrals and charges but do not quantify how many charged cases proceed to trial or overturn at appeal, nor the impact of non‑court disposals or restorative measures ^{[6] [1]}. These omissions mean headline percentages understate the procedural frictions that determine whether a reported sexual assault becomes a conviction.

8. Bottom line for the period since 2020 — mixed progress, persistent gaps

Since 2020 the statistical record shows a modest rebound in police charges for sexual offences by 2024‑25 combined with a gradual erosion in CPS conviction proportions for rape‑flagged categories through Q1 2025‑26, producing a mixed outcome: some procedural advances but continued failure to restore convictions to earlier levels ^{[1] [2]}. The dominant constraints remain evidential closures and case attrition, and while CPS guidance changes aim to address this, the data through mid‑2025 suggest systemic reforms are incomplete and measurable improvements in conviction rates remain limited ^{[3] [2]}.