What are the most recent trends in reporting and conviction rates for sexual assault victims in the UK?
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Executive summary
Police-recorded rape and sexual offence reports in the UK have risen sharply over the last two decades even as the proportion of those reports that reach charging and conviction remains very low, producing a stark “attrition” through the criminal justice system [1] [2]. Independent surveys show prevalence has increased compared with a decade ago but recent official survey estimates and police figures must be interpreted cautiously because of methodological changes and recording improvements [3] [4] [5].
1. Rising recorded reports — a long-term climb, and what’s behind it
Police-recorded rape offences have grown steeply: comparisons between 2002/03 and 2024/25 show almost a sixfold increase in recorded rape in England and Wales, a rise commentators link to improved recording, legislative change and increased reporting rather than necessarily a matching rise in underlying offending [1] [5]. The House of Lords Library notes that in the year to June 2024 roughly 36% of police-recorded sexual offences were rape, itself up slightly year-on-year, while the ONS cautions that improvements in recording and greater victim reporting have contributed to recent increases [5].
2. Survey measures show prevalence but come with caveats
Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimates provide a different lens: the ONS’s survey-based work shows that sexual assault prevalence rose compared with ten years earlier and that in the year ending March 2025 an estimated 1.9% of adults experienced sexual assault in the previous year, but the ONS warns that data for recent years are based on a half sample and that new offences recorded from January 2024 affect comparability [3] [4]. In short, survey data indicate substantial prevalence and some increase over the medium term, but sampling and definitional shifts limit precise year-to-year conclusions [4] [3].
3. The attrition problem — very few reports lead to charges or convictions
Multiple sources document severe attrition from report to court: Home Office and third‑party summaries show a tiny fraction of recorded rapes progress to charge — Rape Crisis cites 2.7% of police-recorded rapes in the year to December 2024 resulted in someone being charged or summonsed, and other analyses put convictions as a small proportion of recorded cases [2]. Operational CPS data and advocacy briefings underline that while prosecution and conviction volumes vary by force and time period, overall charging and conviction rates for rape are far lower than reporting levels, producing persistent criticism about access to justice [6] [7].
4. System factors and political responses
Observers and government reviews have blamed delays, lack of specialist support, and stretched criminal justice processes for falling prosecution rates: the 2021 End-to-end Rape Review pointed to long delays and insufficient specialist provision, and political platforms in 2024 campaigned for specialist rape and sexual offence teams and fast-track courts to address perceived “shamefully low” prosecutions [5]. CPS quarterly summaries show operational management data on referrals, charges and case finalisation times, but the CPS emphasises these are management information rather than official statistics, complicating comparisons [6] [8].
5. What the numbers mean — divergent interpretations and data limits
The picture is one of divergence: police figures show rising recorded offences, the CSEW shows substantial prevalence with some increase over a decade, and prosecution/conviction data reveal dramatic attrition; yet interpretations differ because recording practices, new offence categories introduced in 2024, and half-sample survey data affect comparability and trend statements [5] [4] [3]. Media and advocacy groups highlight the human and systemic injustice reflected in low charging/conviction proportions, while official bodies stress methodological caveats and point to reform agendas and localized variation in prosecution performance [2] [7].
6. Bottom line and reporting gaps
Recent trends show more victims coming forward or being recorded by police and long‑standing, deeply problematic attrition from report to charge and conviction; exact magnitudes depend on which dataset is used and are subject to recent methodological changes and sample limitations that official sources explicitly warn about [1] [2] [4]. Available public reporting supplies strong evidence of the pattern — rising recorded offences, persistent low charge/conviction rates, and policy calls for specialist responses — but gaps remain around consistent, comparable time series and the causal mix of recording change versus true incidence [5] [3].