Are undocumented immigrants more likely to commit crime than u.s. citizens per capita?
Executive summary
Multiple peer-reviewed and government-funded studies find that undocumented immigrants are not more likely to commit crimes per capita than U.S.-born citizens; several large analyses report lower arrest, conviction, or incarceration rates for undocumented people compared with native-born Americans [1] [2] [3]. Federal enforcement tallies and some right‑leaning outlets highlight criminal convictions among “criminal aliens,” but those datasets do not by themselves prove higher per‑capita offending by the undocumented and are routinely cited alongside research showing no overall crime increase from immigration [4] [5].
1. What the major, peer‑reviewed studies actually say
Comprehensive research using Texas arrest records (2012–2018) and other longitudinal state‑level analyses find undocumented immigrants have substantially lower felony arrest rates than both legal immigrants and native‑born U.S. citizens, and show no evidence that undocumented criminality has risen in recent years [2]. A National Institute of Justice–funded study using Texas data found undocumented people were arrested at less than half the rate of native‑born citizens for violent and drug crimes and at about one‑quarter the rate for property crimes [1]. A 2017 longitudinal analysis that combined unauthorized‑population estimates with violent‑crime data concluded undocumented immigration is generally not associated with increased violent crime [6].
2. National and policy‑oriented syntheses: consensus and caveats
Policy research centers and fact sheets from migration specialists reach similar conclusions: a “growing body of research” shows immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born, and increases in immigrant populations are often associated with stable or declining violent crime rates in many localities [7] [8] [3]. The Brennan Center and American Immigration Council both argue that claims of a “migrant crime wave” are not supported by the evidence, and that sanctuary policies have not produced discernible crime increases when compared with similar jurisdictions [5] [8].
3. Government enforcement data and what it does — and doesn’t — prove
U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes “criminal alien” statistics that enumerate convictions and prior criminal histories among apprehended non‑citizens; those raw counts are frequently cited in public debate [4]. But these administrative tallies are not population rates and do not compare undocumented populations per capita to citizens; therefore they cannot on their own establish that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at higher rates than U.S. citizens (p1_s12; available sources do not mention a direct per‑capita comparison derived from CBP data).
4. Why Texas data matter — and their limits
The strongest empirical work separating undocumented from documented immigrants comes from Texas because that state records immigration status in arrest data. That is why multiple high‑profile studies rely on Texas records and why their results are influential: they consistently show lower arrest and homicide arrest rates for undocumented people than for native‑born citizens [1] [2]. Limitations: Texas is not a perfect national mirror; researchers acknowledge data constraints and call for more jurisdictions to collect immigration‑status information to test the generalizability of Texas findings [2].
5. Exceptions, disputed findings, and alternative results
Not every paper finds a null or protective effect. One study cited in syntheses suggested unauthorized immigration from Mexico might be associated with higher rates of certain violent crime in some contexts, indicating heterogeneity by origin and place [6]. Some think tanks and analyses have focused on particular types of offenses or subpopulations and produced results that draw different policy conclusions (p1_s10; available sources do not mention a comprehensive, recent national study that contradicts the central finding of lower per‑capita offending among undocumented immigrants).
6. How measurement, enforcement, and politics shape the story
Scholars warn that arrest and conviction rates reflect policing practices, legal definitions, and enforcement priorities as much as underlying offending; immigration enforcement itself can change who shows up in criminal data [1]. Political narratives often amplify highly publicized individual crimes by non‑citizens; criminal episodes receive outsized attention relative to comparative rates in the research literature [5] [8].
7. Bottom line for readers and policymakers
Available, peer‑reviewed and government‑funded research consistently shows undocumented immigrants do not have higher per‑capita crime rates than U.S. citizens and often have lower rates of arrest, conviction, and incarceration [2] [1] [3]. Some studies note context‑specific exceptions and data‑coverage limits; policymakers should weigh Texas‑based and national syntheses alongside enforcement statistics while recognizing that raw counts do not equal per‑capita risk [4] [6].
Limitations: this analysis relies only on the provided sources; the landscape of studies is active and researchers continue to debate mechanisms and context dependence (available sources do not mention newer studies beyond those cited here).