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Do undocumented and documented people have similar crime rates in the US in 2025
Executive summary
Most recent, peer-reviewed and institutional reporting finds that undocumented immigrants in the U.S. have lower rates of arrest, conviction, and incarceration than U.S.-born citizens; documented immigrants generally fall between those two groups (NIJ summary of Texas data; Migration Policy Center) [1] [2]. Multiple organizations and studies conclude that increases in immigration are not associated with higher violent crime and in many cases correlate with lower crime rates (Brennan Center; PMC review) [3] [4].
1. What the best direct-comparison studies show — “Texas as a laboratory”
A federally funded analysis using Texas Department of Public Safety records allowed researchers to separate arrests by immigration status and found undocumented immigrants had the lowest offending rates for total felony and violent felony crime, with U.S.-born citizens the highest and documented immigrants in the middle; the study reported undocumented arrest rates were less than half those of native-born citizens for violent and drug crimes and about one-quarter for property crimes (NIJ summary; House report citing the same study) [1] [5].
2. National-level and long-term patterns — immigrants and lower incarceration
Long-run and national studies echo the Texas findings: researchers examining incarceration and arrest patterns over long periods find immigrants—including unauthorized immigrants—are less likely to be incarcerated or arrested for felonies than U.S.-born persons. Northwestern and other academic summaries emphasize immigrants have not been incarcerated at higher rates historically, and some work finds undocumented immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated than the U.S.-born (northwestern/Wisconsin reporting; Migration Policy Center) [6] [7] [2].
3. Broader research consensus — no evidence that undocumented immigration increases violent crime
Policy and research organizations conclude that undocumented immigration does not drive violent crime increases. The Brennan Center’s review states numerous studies show undocumented immigration does not increase violent crime and finds no discernable difference in crime rates between sanctuary and comparable non‑sanctuary cities [3]. A longitudinal academic analysis combining unauthorized population estimates with crime data across states (1990–2014) likewise finds no macro-level increase in violent crime attributable to undocumented immigration [4].
4. Why different methods can yield different impressions — arrests vs. offending vs. enforcement
Studies typically rely on arrests, convictions, or incarceration as observable proxies for offending; researchers caution these measures reflect both criminal behavior and law‑enforcement activity. The Texas work itself cautions arrest is an imperfect proxy because it also reflects policing practices; in other words, disparities in enforcement, reporting, or data availability can change measured rates even if underlying offending is stable (NIJ discussion) [1].
5. Places, timeframes and policy context matter
Multiple studies find the “immigration effect” varies by locality and local policy environment: cities and neighborhoods with higher immigrant concentrations often show lower crime trends, and inclusive policies or well‑established immigrant communities are linked to reductions in violent and property crimes (Brennan Center; ASA summary) [3] [8]. That does not mean every jurisdiction will show identical patterns—researchers emphasize context and long timeframes when drawing conclusions [4].
6. Opposing narratives and media framing — high‑profile cases vs. population-level evidence
Advocates for stricter enforcement and some media outlets highlight high‑profile crimes by undocumented individuals; researchers and public‑interest groups warn such cases can skew public perception and policy despite population-level studies that show lower rates among immigrants overall (Brennan Center) [3]. The academic literature repeatedly urges policymakers to rely on systematic data rather than anecdote [4].
7. Limitations of the available reporting and open questions for 2025
Available sources rely on studies through roughly the early-to-mid 2020s and on specific datasets (e.g., Texas DPS, long-run incarceration records); comprehensive, nationwide criminality estimates that directly identify immigration status remain rare, so some uncertainty persists about the precise magnitudes in every state and year (NIJ; Migration Policy Center) [1] [2]. Reports that focus on federal enforcement encounters or convictions (e.g., “criminal alien” statistics) capture a different slice of the picture and can overrepresent enforcement‑prioritized populations [9].
8. Bottom line for a 2025 assessment
As of the sources provided, the best available empirical work and policy analyses conclude undocumented immigrants do not have higher crime rates than U.S.-born citizens and in many studies have lower rates; documented immigrants typically fall between undocumented and native‑born groups (NIJ; Migration Policy Center; Brennan Center) [1] [2] [3]. Interpretations differ in political debate, but the peer-reviewed, institutional and policy‑analysis literature cited here does not support a narrative that undocumented immigration is causing a nationwide crime surge [4] [3].