Which US cities currently have higher per-capita homicide rates than Chicago in 2024–2025?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows disagreement about how Chicago ranks because different datasets, city-size cutoffs and time windows are used; several sources report Chicago’s 2024 homicide rate at about 17.5 per 100,000 and note that some smaller cities had higher per‑capita rates in 2024 (e.g., St. Louis and other smaller jurisdictions) while among very large cities (1M+), comparisons vary [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide a single, definitive list of all U.S. cities that exceeded Chicago’s per‑capita homicide rate in 2024–2025, but multiple reports identify specific cities — St. Louis, Baltimore, and several smaller cities — as having higher rates in various datasets [3] [4] [5].
1. Why you get different answers: competing datasets and cutoffs
Journalists and analysts rely on different sources — FBI Uniform Crime Reports, CDC mortality data, city dashboards and independent think‑tank samples — and those sources use different city lists (e.g., cities 250,000+ vs. 1,000,000+), time frames (calendar year vs. rolling 12 months vs. six‑month windows) and definitions (police‑reported homicides vs. death‑certificate homicides), so rankings change depending on which measure is used [5] [6]. FactCheck.org notes that Chicago appears to have had “almost 17.5 incidents per 100,000” in 2024 in FBI data used in some comparisons, but that different samples yield different placements among peers [2].
2. Which named cities are repeatedly cited as higher than Chicago?
Several sources single out St. Louis and Baltimore among places with higher per‑capita homicide rates in recent years. For example, a reporting summary notes St. Louis had a 2024 rate much higher than Chicago’s (St. Louis cited at 52.9 per 100,000 in a 2024 ranking) and that historically smaller cities with shrinking populations can show very high rates even with relatively few deaths [3]. Newsweek and other map/ranking pieces list Baltimore and some smaller Midwestern and Southern cities among the highest‑rate jurisdictions, often above Chicago depending on the dataset [4] [1].
3. What about the largest U.S. cities (1M+)?
When analysts restrict comparison to cities with populations over 1 million, the pool narrows and Chicago’s relative position changes. FactCheck.org and the Council on Criminal Justice analyses show that among sampled large cities the set compared sometimes included Chicago alongside New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix and San Antonio, and those comparisons can show Philadelphia exceeding Chicago in some windows [6] [5]. But which of those very large cities had higher per‑capita rates than Chicago depends on the exact months and source used [2] [6].
4. The role of time windows: 2024 vs. 2025 (and halves of years)
Several outlets report sizable declines in homicides during 2025 relative to 2024 in many cities; the Council on Criminal Justice found Chicago’s homicide rate in the first half of 2025 was 33% lower than the same period in 2024, and that many cities were on downward trajectories [7]. Because Chicago’s 2025 pace was lower in those samples, a city that exceeded Chicago’s 2024 rate might not exceed Chicago’s 2025 rate — and vice versa — depending on whether you look at calendar‑year 2024, first half 2025, or July‑to‑June rolling windows [7] [5].
5. How population size skews per‑capita comparisons
Analysts warn that smaller cities can show extreme per‑capita homicide rates because a modest absolute number of killings creates a large per‑100,000 rate when the denominator is small; that is why St. Louis and other smaller municipalities often top “highest rate” lists even though they register far fewer total murders than Chicago [3] [5]. The White House and other commentators have highlighted that comparing cities only to peers above or below arbitrary population thresholds can produce contradictory headlines [6].
6. What can be said confidently from current reporting
Confident statements supported by the available pieces: Chicago’s FBI‑based 2024 homicide rate has been reported around 17.5 per 100,000 [2] [1]; St. Louis and several smaller cities had higher per‑capita rates in 2024 in multiple datasets [3] [4]; Chicago’s homicide counts and rates declined substantially into 2025 in the samples discussed, altering year‑to‑year rankings [7] [5]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, universally agreed list of all U.S. cities that exceeded Chicago’s per‑capita rate across the full 2024–2025 period — rankings differ by data source, city‑size cutoff and time window [5] [6].
7. How to get the precise, up‑to‑date answer you want
If you want a definitive list for a chosen comparison frame, specify: (a) which dataset (FBI UCR/NCVS, CDC WONDER, local police counts, or a third‑party compilation), (b) city population cutoff (e.g., 250K, 500K, 1M), and (c) exact time window (calendar year 2024, Jan–Jun 2025, rolling 12 months through June 2025). With that, reporters can generate a reproducible ranking. Available sources provide pieces of this puzzle but not a single authoritative, universally accepted list covering all U.S. cities for 2024–2025 [5] [2].