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Fact check: Which US cities have seen the largest decrease in crime rates from 2024 to 2025?
Executive Summary
The available analyses show national declines in crime from 2023 to 2024 and continued drops into 2025 in many cities, but they do not provide a comprehensive, city-by-city ranking of the largest decreases from 2024 to 2025. Major federal reporting covers 2024 declines (violent crime down about 4%, murders down ~15%, property crime down ~8%), while the Council on Criminal Justice documents a substantial 17% drop in homicides in the first half of 2025 across 42 studied cities; several individual cities are repeatedly cited for notable improvements, though direct 2024→2025 comparative tables are not in the provided sources [1] [2].
1. Why the headlines point to falling crime — and what the numbers actually measure
The FBI’s annual compilation shows clear national declines in 2024: a roughly 4% fall in reported violent crime, a 15% drop in murders, and an 8% decrease in property crime with motor vehicle theft down nearly 20% relative to 2023; these figures reflect headline, nationwide totals reported by jurisdictions to the FBI, not uniform declines in every city [1]. The FBI dataset is best for broad trend signals and year-over-year national context but is limited for answering which specific cities had the largest 2024→2025 decreases because the bureau’s 2025 city-level data are not included in the provided materials and many municipal reports lag or use different timeframes and metrics [3]. This matters because rates versus counts, partial-year comparisons, and differing reporting practices can change which city appears to have the “largest” decrease.
2. City-level stories: who is repeatedly cited for big improvements
Multiple analyses single out Baltimore, St. Louis, and Memphis as cities that posted meaningful year-over-year declines in violent crime or homicides in the periods covered by these reports, with the Council on Criminal Justice specifically noting substantial homicide reductions in the first half of 2025 across its sample of 42 cities [2]. The FBI’s 2024-focused reporting also highlights that while national totals fell, the burden of high violent- and property-crime rates remained concentrated in a subset of cities; some of those same high-burden cities are the ones showing the largest year-to-year swings when interventions, policing changes, or other local factors occur [1]. Repeated citation across reports strengthens the signal that those named cities saw notable declines, but it does not produce a definitive ordered list of largest decreases from 2024 to 2025.
3. Contradictions and the cities that still struggle despite national gains
Even as many places improved, the reports emphasize that crime remains concentrated and uneven: smaller jurisdictions like Birmingham, Emeryville, and East Point are flagged for persistently higher rates in the 2024 data and are contrasted with cities showing improvement [1]. The Council’s mid-2025 analysis also points out that more than half of the studied cities still have homicide rates higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating that a headline decline in homicides does not mean uniform recovery across all urban areas [2]. This pattern underscores how selective improvements in certain cities can coexist with stubbornly high rates elsewhere, complicating any simple statement about “largest decreases” without a complete, consistent dataset.
4. Methodological limits that prevent a definitive 2024→2025 city ranking
None of the provided sources delivers an exhaustive, standardized city-by-city comparison specifically measuring 2024 to 2025 percentage changes across the same reporting windows and metrics; the FBI material covers 2024 national totals, and the CCJ analysis examines the first half of 2025 across 42 cities, producing valuable but partial snapshots [3] [2]. Differences in whether data are counts or rates per capita, whether full-year or partial-year intervals are used, and reporting lags from local agencies create apples-to-oranges issues that invalidate straightforward rankings from these documents alone [1]. For a rigorous top-decrease list you need harmonized city-level datasets with consistent timeframes and denominators.
5. What a careful answer would require and the practical takeaway for policymakers and the public
To produce a validated list of the U.S. cities with the largest crime-rate decreases from 2024 to 2025 requires harmonized, city-level datasets covering identical time windows and per-capita rates, ideally compiled from local police reports or a consolidated database released after 2025 municipal reporting closes; the current materials point to strong candidates (Baltimore, St. Louis, Memphis) but fall short of a definitive ranking [1] [2]. The practical takeaway is that national improvements and large mid-2025 homicide declines are real, but the uneven geography of crime means targeted, local analysis is essential before declaring which cities experienced the biggest year-over-year improvements [1] [2].