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Fact check: What were the murder rates in major US cities in 2024?
Executive Summary
The analyses claim that 2024 homicide patterns showed both sharp city-to-city variation and mixed year-over-year trends: some data place St. Louis, Detroit, and Baltimore among the highest homicide rates per 100,000, while other datasets report overall declines in homicides across many large cities in 2024 compared with 2023 and 2019. Key tension in the sources is between lists ranking the highest-rate cities and broader trend reports that show net decreases in total homicides across many major-city samples [1] [2] [3]. Below I extract the principal claims, reconcile differences, and flag where the datasets overlap or diverge.
1. What the analysts say about the deadliest cities — a stark ranking that names Saint Louis on top
Several analyses produce city-level rankings that identify St. Louis as having the highest homicide rate in 2024 (48.6 per 100,000), with Detroit and Baltimore following, and other legacy high-violence cities like Memphis and Chicago also appearing near the top of lists. These claims come from a June 2024 compilation and are reiterated in later summaries noting Louisville’s high per-capita toll relative to Chicago and Los Angeles [1] [3]. The lists are focused on per-capita homicide rates and emphasize concentration of lethal violence in a relatively small set of cities, which affects national perception even if national totals move differently.
2. What the analysts say about year-over-year directional change — many cities saw declines in 2024
Separate sources emphasize aggregate declines in homicides across samples of large cities: a January–April 2025 review reports a 16% decrease in homicides across 29 cities (631 fewer) comparing 2024 to 2023 and a 6% decline compared with 2019; the FBI’s quarterly reports show a substantial drop in violent crime and murder in participating jurisdictions over 2024 [2] [4]. These trend-oriented datasets use multi-city samples and preliminary agency reports and therefore speak to broad movement rather than ranking extremes—so both the ranking lists and the trend reports can be true simultaneously.
3. Where the datasets align — highest-rate cities still appear amid overall declines
The sources converge on the point that certain cities retained very high homicide rates even as total homicides fell across many large-city samples. For example, St. Louis, Detroit, and Baltimore are repeatedly listed among the highest-rate cities while multi-city surveys show net declines in homicide counts [1] [2]. This alignment indicates that decreases were not uniform: many jurisdictions drove the aggregate declines, while a subset of cities continued to experience persistent, elevated per-capita homicide rates. The two portrayals describe different slices of the same national mosaic.
4. Where the datasets diverge — scope, methodology and participating agencies matter
Discrepancies arise because the lists and trend reports use different metrics, city samples, and reporting windows: ranking lists emphasize per-capita rates for a defined set (top 30 or 50), while trend reports aggregate counts across a sample of large cities or participating agencies and can use provisional FBI feeds [1] [4] [2]. One source highlights localized, sharp year-over-year jumps in specific cities like Colorado Springs (+56%) while others report broad declines. Differences in inclusion criteria, provisional vs. finalized data, and whether counts are raw totals or rates explain apparent contradictions between sources.
5. What’s missing or underemphasized — data caveats and local context
None of the analyses fully resolves data completeness, timing, or the role of non-homicide factors (e.g., policing changes, pandemic-era effects, demographic shifts); several explicitly note provisional status of FBI figures or limited city samples [4] [2]. Local incidents, classification changes, and reporting lags can alter year-to-year tallies. The ranking pieces focus on mortality rates per 100,000 but do not always show absolute counts or covariates; the trend reports show aggregate movement but not which specific cities drove those changes. That leaves room for misinterpretation if readers conflate rate rankings with national trends.
6. Bottom line for readers seeking numbers — how to interpret conflicting headlines
To interpret 2024 homicide coverage accurately, treat rate-based city rankings (St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore high) and aggregate trend reports (many large-city decreases) as complementary, not mutually exclusive, findings: rankings identify persistent hotspots while trend data show broader improvement across many sampled jurisdictions [1] [2] [4]. When seeking specific city numbers, consult the original per-city rate lists alongside the FBI or major-cities survey for context on sample and provisional status. The apparent contradiction is resolved by recognizing differing focuses and methodologies across the supplied analyses.