Fact check: Which US city has seen the largest decrease in murder rates from 2020 to 2025?

1. Why a clear “largest decrease 2020–2025” isn’t present in the records and what the reports actually say

No source in the provided set computes a consistent, five-year (2020–2025) city-by-city comparison that would allow a definitive statement about which U.S. city experienced the largest decrease across that entire span. Several pieces instead report sharp year-over-year drops concentrated in 2024–2025, including a mid-year aggregate decline and city-specific mid-2025 figures, but they stop short of compiling a full 2020 baseline through 2025 endpoint comparison necessary to declare a single leader ^{[5] [4] [2]}. Analysts explicitly note the volatility of homicide trends and warn against extrapolating short-term improvements into long-term conclusions ^{[4] [1]}.

2. Portland’s headline claim — steepest drop in early 2025 — and its limits

One report states Portland saw a 51% drop in homicides in the first half of 2025 versus the first half of 2024, framing it as the steepest decline among large U.S. cities in that period ^[2]. That figure is compelling for a mid-2025 snapshot, but it compares a six-month window to the prior year rather than measuring the full change from 2020 through 2025; thus it documents the largest short-term percentage fall reported here, not a definitive five-year trend. The source’s focus on a half-year comparison introduces seasonal and statistical sensitivity that could overstate a multi-year pattern.

3. Big-city aggregates show widespread declines but no single winner

Aggregate analyses and mid-year reviews report that homicide rates fell broadly: a 17% drop in major cities in the first half of 2025 and an FBI-reported national decline in 2024, suggesting a widespread downward shift in recent years ^{[4] [6]}. These aggregates confirm the direction of travel but are not designed to single out one city across 2020–2025. They emphasize the possibility of rapid reversals and caution that local conditions, reporting lags, and methodological differences between jurisdictions complicate any attempt to pick a single “largest decrease” without standardized five-year data ^{[4] [5]}.

4. Cities with notable recent drops: names repeatedly mentioned across reports

Multiple analyses highlight the same set of cities as showing sizable decreases in recent reporting: Baltimore, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia appear across pieces noting substantial year-to-year improvements or historically low counts in certain years ^{[1] [7] [8]}. These mentions suggest a pattern where both historically high-homicide and large metropolitan jurisdictions experienced meaningful reductions in homicides between 2023–2025, but the sources vary in timeframe, metric (counts versus rates), and geographic scope, which prevents a definitive ranking across 2020–2025.

5. Detroit’s local narrative and data framing: lowest homicides since 1965, context matters

Detroit city officials report the lowest number of homicides since 1965, crediting policing changes, staffing, and community violence intervention programs for the improvement ^[8]. That claim describes a notable historical milestone for Detroit in recent reporting, yet it addresses absolute counts and single-city historical context rather than a formal five-year percentage decline comparison across cities. The local framing underscores how municipal narratives and interventions shape interpretation of homicide trends, which must be weighed alongside standardized rate calculations to compare jurisdictions fairly.

6. Analysts’ caution: volatility, forecasting limits, and methodological differences

Crime analysts and forecasting discussions in the sources stress that homicide trends are volatile and that short-term declines can reverse quickly, complicating definitive long-term claims ^{[4] [9]}. Differences in how agencies count homicides, reporting delays, and whether analyses use raw counts or population-adjusted rates can materially alter rankings. Several sources explicitly avoid declaring a long-term leader and urge more comprehensive multi-year, standardized datasets before asserting which city experienced the largest reduction from 2020 to 2025 ^{[9] [1]}.

7. Reconciling the evidence: plausible leaders and unresolved gaps

Based on the available materials, Portland stands out for the steepest reported short-term percentage decline in early 2025, while several traditionally high-homicide cities and New York City show substantial year-to-year drops that could translate into large five-year improvements if aligned with 2020 baselines ^{[2] [3] [1]}. However, none of the provided analyses present a standardized 2020–2025 city-by-city comparison; therefore, any claim that a particular city is the definitive five-year leader remains unsupported by the supplied sources ^{[5] [4]}.

8. Bottom line and what would resolve the question definitively

To answer definitively which U.S. city saw the largest decrease in murder rates from 2020 to 2025 requires a standardized dataset providing city-level homicide counts and population denominators for each year 2020–2025, with transparent methodology for rate calculation and adjustments for reporting lags. Until such a standardized five-year analysis is published, the best evidence shows notable short-term declines in 2024–2025 across many cities—with Portland leading mid-2025 percentage drops and other large or high-homicide cities reporting significant improvements—but it does not support a conclusive five-year ranking ^{[2] [4] [6]}.