How have national violent and property crime rates changed in the US since 2016?
Executive summary
Since 2016 the national picture has shifted: violent crime rose through 2016 and peaked around 2020–2021 before falling in 2022–2023, while property crime generally trended downward across the same multi‑year span (sources: FBI summaries cited by Pew, Wikipedia, Brennan Center) [1] [2] [3].
1. A short timeline: rise, peak, then retreat
From 2014–2016 violent crime climbed modestly, with homicide rates noted as higher in 2016 than in the preceding low point [1]. That upward move was followed by a sharp jump in homicides in 2020 — described in reporting as the largest single‑year increase on record — and elevated violent‑crime levels through 2021 [2] before data show declines beginning in 2022 and continuing into 2023 [1] [2].
2. What the headline numbers say about violent crime
Analysts using FBI figures report that the national violent‑crime rate rose in the mid‑2010s, spiked around 2020, and then retreated: the FBI‑based series shows violent crime substantially lower than 1990s peaks but with notable year‑to‑year swings in the 2016–2023 window [2] [1]. Independent and intermediary compilations (Statista, Brennan Center) also cite the FBI’s 2023 report describing a historic drop in the national murder rate from 2022 to 2023 [4] [3].
3. Property crime’s steadier decline
Property crime displayed a longer downward trajectory since the 1990s and through the 2016–2022 period, with the FBI data showing large multi‑decade decreases in burglary and larceny and an overall property‑crime rate far below its early‑1990s peak [2]. Several sources describe property crime as declining even while violent crime experienced more volatile year‑to‑year movement after 2016 [2].
4. Regional and city variation matters
National aggregates mask big geographic differences. The Brennan Center notes some large cities saw strong post‑2020 drops in homicide (for example, Chicago and Baltimore down notably since 2020) while others remained well above 2020 levels through 2023 [3]. The Northeast continued to report lower murder and violent‑crime rates relative to the South in 2020 and 2023 [3].
5. Data caveats and competing measures
Two main federal sources — the FBI’s UCR/NIBRS and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ NCVS — offer different perspectives and both are imperfect; Pew warns they paint an incomplete picture even as they agree on long‑term declines since the early 1990s [2]. The Brennan Center emphasizes the 2023 FBI report covers roughly 94% of the population but cautions that measurement and reporting differences across agencies complicate direct comparisons [3].
6. What changed after 2020 — and why we can’t be sure
Reporting documents a large 2020 jump in homicides and elevated violent crime into 2021, then sizable declines in 2022–2023; researchers say the causes are complex and resist easy explanations [2] [3]. The Brennan Center explicitly warns against simple causal claims and notes that attempts to dismiss the numbers’ reliability “don’t hold up,” while other work urges better, timelier national monitoring systems [3] [5].
7. Where analysts disagree or hedge
Sources concur on the broad arc — mid‑2010s rise, 2020 spike, 2022–2023 decline, property crime lower than in the 1990s — but they differ on emphasis and interpretation. Some aggregators highlight accelerating declines in 2023 as encouraging [1], while analysts like Pew stress persistent limitations in the data and the need for caution before drawing policy conclusions [2].
8. Bottom line for readers and policymakers
The national story since 2016 is one of volatility atop a long‑term decline: violent crime rose into 2016 and surged around 2020, then fell in 2022–2023; property crime continued a longer downward trend [1] [2] [3]. Given regional variation and acknowledged data limits, policymakers should base decisions on the most complete FBI and BJS releases and local incident data rather than single‑year headlines [3] [2].
Limitations: available sources do not mention detailed, consistently comparable annual rates for every crime type across 2016–2024 within this set; readers seeking exact year‑by‑year figures should consult the FBI “Crime in the U.S.” reports and BJS releases directly [6] [2].