Fact check: How do US city murder rates in 2025 compare to those in other developed countries?

Executive summary — What the data shows at a glance

The available 2025 reporting shows a notable decline in homicide counts across many major U.S. cities compared with the same period in 2024, while nationally the U.S. homicide rate remains higher than many other developed countries when measured per 100,000 people ^{[1] [2]}. However, comparisons are complicated by differences between city-level short‑term drops and country-level annualized rates, and by partisan claims about causes; independent analysts and multiple outlets caution that attribution remains uncertain ^{[3] [1]}. This analysis synthesizes the claims, timelines, and key caveats so readers can judge how U.S. city trends stack up against other developed nations ^[2].

1. Why the headlines claim “murder rates plummet” — the numbers behind the claim

Several 2025 pieces report large year‑over‑year percentage declines in homicides in many U.S. cities: a 21.6 percent nationwide drop for the period cited, with Baltimore down 31.6%, St. Louis down 34.5%, New York down 26.8%, and other cities showing double‑digit falls as of early/mid‑2025 ^[1]. Crime analyst Jeff Asher’s city‑by‑city counts echo those declines and add that some cities (Denver, Cleveland) saw very large percentage swings, though he warns that short windows amplify volatility and attribution is unclear ^[3]. These are counts/percent changes for partial 2025 periods, not necessarily final annual rates.

2. The national baseline: how U.S. country rates compare to other developed nations

MacroTrends’ country data for 2025 lists the U.S. with a homicide rate around 6.42 per 100,000 population, which is materially higher than typical rates in many high‑income democracies ^[2]. That national per‑capita figure is useful for cross‑country comparisons because it standardizes for population, but it does not reflect intra‑country city variation; U.S. cities often have much higher local rates than the national average, which can skew perceptions when comparing a city to a whole country ^{[2] [4]}. The difference between city spikes and national averages is central to understanding international comparisons.

3. City‑to‑city comparisons: U.S. cities versus selected global cities

A White House‑linked post compiled city homicide rates showing Washington, D.C. at 27.54 per 100,000, higher than many global metros listed such as Bogotá and Mexico City in that dataset, while places like Paris (1.64), London (1.1), and Delhi (1.49) reported much lower per‑100k figures ^[4]. These comparisons underscore that some U.S. cities have metro homicide rates that exceed those of major developed‑country capitals, but they rely on differing data windows, definitional choices, and population denominators—factors that make direct apples‑to‑apples comparison difficult ^{[4] [2]}.

4. Conflicting explanations: policy claims vs. analyst caution

Political actors, including the Trump administration in June 2025, attributed the declines to federal enforcement policies, framing the drop as policy‑driven success ^[1]. Independent analysts like Jeff Asher acknowledge the declines but caution that short‑term trends are noisy, that declines are uneven across cities, and that multiple factors—local policing, social services, demographic shifts, law enforcement practices, and chance—can contribute ^[3]. The data window and partisan framing create competing narratives; the facts show declines in counts, while causation remains contested.

5. Important methodological limitations that change the story

All cited sources use different denominators, timeframes, and geographic units: some report partial‑year percentage changes (2025 vs. 2024), others provide annual country per‑100k rates, and still others list city-specific per‑100k figures without harmonized periods ^{[1] [2]}. These mismatches produce misleading impressions if not normalized: a city with a sharp year‑to‑date decline may still finish the year higher than peer cities, and a country’s per‑capita rate masks subnational hotspots. Comparability is the central methodological constraint when placing U.S. city trends next to developed‑country rates ^{[2] [4]}.

6. What the balanced takeaway should be for readers

The balanced takeaway is that many U.S. cities reported substantial homicide declines in early/mid‑2025, and the U.S. national homicide rate remains higher than many developed countries on a per‑capita basis ^{[1] [2]}. However, short‑term city declines do not automatically translate into long‑term international convergence, and partisan attributions of cause are not yet corroborated by consensus analysis ^{[3] [1]}. To judge whether U.S. cities are now comparable to peer capitals, policymakers and researchers need harmonized, year‑complete datasets and peer‑reviewed causal studies beyond the early 2025 reporting ^{[2] [3]}.