Fact check: How have murder rates changed over the past decade in the top 5 states?

1. Summary of the results

The murder rates in the top 5 states with the highest murder rates, which are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, New Mexico, and Tennessee ^[1], have experienced a decline in recent years. According to ^[5], there was a 9.4% decrease in murder rates in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022. Additionally, ^[4] reports a 15% decrease in murders in 2024, continuing a decline in violent crime that began after a pandemic-era crime spike. Furthermore, ^[6] notes a 17% decrease in homicide rates in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. The national homicide death rate also fell by 7.8% from 2022 to 2023, with the age-adjusted homicide rate declining by 13.4% since its 21st-century peak in 2021 ^[1]. Key factors contributing to the decline in crime rates include the re-establishment of connections and resources that prevent violence after the COVID-19 pandemic ^[2]. The average reported homicide rate in 2024 was 16% lower than in 2023, representing 631 fewer homicides in the cities that reported data ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Some important context is missing from the original statement, such as the fact that the top 5 states with the highest murder rates have experienced significant increases in homicide rates over the past decade, with Mississippi's rate nearly doubling from 10 homicides per 100,000 people to 19.4 ^[1]. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic played a crucial role in the rise of crime rates, but the re-establishment of connections and resources that prevent violence has contributed to the decline in crime rates ^[2]. Alternative viewpoints suggest that while the national homicide death rate has declined, some states have experienced increases in homicide rates, highlighting the need for state-specific approaches to addressing crime ^[1]. It is also worth noting that the homicide rates in cities like Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis, which traditionally have the highest homicide rates, have experienced large drops in homicide rates, with their 2024 rates at or below their rates in 2013 and 2014 ^[3].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement may be misleading as it does not provide a clear picture of the changes in murder rates over the past decade in the top 5 states. While the statement asks about the change in murder rates, it does not account for the complexity of the issue, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the varying trends in different states and cities ^[1]. Law enforcement agencies and policymakers may benefit from the statement's focus on the decline in crime rates, as it may support their efforts to address crime and violence ^[4]. However, community organizations and advocacy groups may argue that the statement overlooks the need for state-specific approaches to addressing crime and the importance of addressing the root causes of crime, such as poverty and lack of access to resources ^[2]. Overall, the statement may be biased towards a national perspective, overlooking the diversity of experiences and trends in different states and cities ^[1].