Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
How does the United States rape rate per 100,000 compare to Canada and the UK in 2023-2024?
Executive Summary
The data assembled from the provided analyses show a commonly reported figure that the United States recorded a forcible rape rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2023, but the available materials do not supply comparable per‑100,000 rates for Canada or the UK for 2023–2024, preventing a direct apples‑to‑apples comparison. The sources emphasize that differences in definitions, recording practices and measures (counts versus rates) across jurisdictions mean any cross‑country comparison requires careful harmonization and additional country‑specific data [1] [2] [3]. Analysts repeatedly flagged that while the UK has rising police‑recorded rape counts, that metric is not directly equivalent to the U.S. per‑100,000 rate without population normalization and definitional alignment [3] [4].
1. The U.S. headline: 38 per 100,000 — what that number actually represents and its limits
The available analyses identify a U.S. forcible rape rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2023, a figure cited from statistical summaries of FBI reporting and aggregated datasets [1] [2]. This number uses the FBI’s post‑2013, broader rape definition, which analysts underline as critical context because changes in definitions can raise recorded rates even without underlying crime increases. The cited sources explicitly note that this U.S. rate is derived from domestic reporting systems and does not incorporate cross‑national harmonization. Consequently, the 38 per 100,000 figure is accurate for a U.S. reporting framework but insufficient on its own to declare the U.S. higher or lower than Canada or the UK, since the latter jurisdictions use different recording rules and may present either counts or rates in their public reports [1] [2].
2. Canada: knowledgeable silence and calls for harmonized measures
The analyses that touch on Canada emphasize prevalence and underreporting rather than providing a clear per‑100,000 rape rate for 2023–2024; multiple summaries conclude that the available Canadian materials do not offer a comparable rate [5] [6]. Analysts note that Canadian reporting frequently focuses on survey‑based prevalence and victimization patterns, and that official counts may reflect different offense definitions and recording practices than the U.S. system. Because the supplied Canadian items do not contain a directly comparable per‑100,000 figure for the same period, the correct analytical approach is to seek harmonized statistics from Statistics Canada or to convert counts to rates using consistent definitions and population denominators before comparing with the U.S. [5] [6].
3. The UK picture: rising police‑recorded counts but not a rate for direct comparison
UK materials in the provided analyses report rising police‑recorded rape counts, with figures cited for England and Wales showing tens of thousands of recorded offences across recent years, and specific tallies like 71,667 for 2024/25 and 67,818 for 2023/24 noted in the discussion [3] [4]. Analysts stress that those numbers are counts of recorded offences, not standardized rates per 100,000 population, and that increased recording can reflect changes in reporting behavior, policing emphasis, or recording practice rather than strictly an underlying incidence spike. Because the materials do not present a UK per‑100,000 rate aligned to the U.S. definition and year, the UK counts cannot be substituted for a rate in cross‑national comparison without additional calculation and definitional matching [3] [4].
4. Why direct comparisons are unreliable without harmonized definitions and denominators
All provided analyses converge on a single methodological caution: definitions and measurement choices matter. The U.S. figure rests on the FBI’s broader post‑2013 definition; Canadian sources emphasize prevalence and underreporting; UK sources give police‑recorded counts. Analysts repeatedly flag that mixing per‑100,000 rates, raw counts, and differently defined offence categories will produce misleading conclusions unless researchers harmonize definitions, convert counts to rates using consistent population denominators, or use standardized victimization survey measures. The materials recommend obtaining country‑level rates calculated under a common definition or, alternatively, computing per‑100,000 rates from official counts and mid‑year population estimates while clearly documenting definitional differences [1] [5] [3].
5. Practical next steps to achieve a defensible comparison
Based on the gaps identified across the supplied analyses, the immediate path to a defensible cross‑country comparison is clear: obtain official 2023–2024 rape counts from Statistics Canada and the UK Home Office/ONS (or police‑recorded data for England and Wales), convert those counts into rates per 100,000 using consistent mid‑year population denominators, and document whether the underlying legal/administrative definitions align with the FBI’s U.S. definition. The current packet of analyses provides the U.S. rate (38/100,000) and UK counts but lacks the Canadian rate and harmonized UK rate; researchers should therefore treat any headline comparison as provisional until those harmonized calculations are completed [1] [2] [5] [3].