Fact check: Which states have the highest and lowest rape rates in the US in 2025?

1. Why the Numbers Diverge: Conflicting Methodologies and Sources

The three primary analyses in the packet show substantial numerical divergence for the same states, signaling methodological differences rather than simple reporting errors. One cluster reports Alaska at 148.7 per 100,000, followed by Arkansas and South Dakota with much smaller rates, while another—an FBI-derived figure cited—lists Alaska at 74 per 100,000 and places South Dakota and Arkansas at lower values ^{[1] [2]}. These contrasts suggest either different definitions of “rape” or different time windows and data aggregation techniques, and they underscore that headline rankings can shift based on whether the source uses state agency submissions, FBI crime-data pipelines, or independent aggregations ^[4].

2. Who’s Placed at the Top and Why That Matters

Multiple analyses consistently put Alaska, Arkansas, and South Dakota among the highest-ranking states for reported rape rates in 2025, though the order and magnitudes change ^{[1] [4] [2]}. Alaska’s repeated presence at the top across sources indicates a persistent pattern of elevated reported sexual violence, but the specific figure—148.7 versus 74—matters for policy framing and resource allocation. The discrepancy could reflect inclusion of historical cases, broader offense categories, or corrections for underreporting. Understanding which dataset underlies a claim is crucial before drawing policy or media conclusions ^{[4] [2]}.

3. Who’s at the Bottom and What “Lowest” Actually Signals

Several sources identify New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine among the states with the lowest rape rates in 2025, with New Jersey frequently listed as lowest at 17.2 per 100,000 ^{[1] [3]}. Low reported rates can reflect effective prevention and law enforcement, but they can also signal underreporting, differing legal definitions, or data collection gaps, meaning “lowest” is not synonymous with “safest.” Without standardized reporting and common definitional frameworks, comparisons that treat state rankings as apples-to-apples risk obscuring important local context and victim-survivor reporting dynamics ^[5].

4. The FBI Figure vs. Other Aggregations: A Key Tension

One analysis explicitly references the FBI Crime Data Explorer and reports smaller per-100,000 figures—Alaska at 74, South Dakota 53, and Arkansas 52—contrasting sharply with a separate source’s larger values ^[2]. This tension likely reflects the FBI’s specific data collection and offense categorization, which may exclude some incidents captured by broader compilations or include differently defined offense codes. Policymakers and journalists should ask which data pipeline they are citing because quoting a single number without methodological context can mislead public understanding of the scale of sexual violence ^{[2] [4]}.

5. Dates and Publication Context: Temporal Variation Matters

The packet contains analyses dated between February and August 2025, and the presence of later pieces referencing broader “safety” indices rather than rape-specific metrics complicates the narrative ^{[2] [3]}. Changes in reporting practices, law enforcement submission timeliness, or retrospective data corrections over several months can alter state rankings. Relying on a single snapshot risks missing these dynamics; instead, analysts should compare datasets across publication dates to identify stable patterns versus short-term fluctuations ^{[4] [1]}.

6. What’s Missing From These Claims: Definitions, Reporting Rates, and Context

None of the provided analyses fully reconciles how “rape” is defined, how attempted versus completed offenses are treated, or how reporting and prosecution rates influence raw per-capita figures ^[5]. Important omitted considerations include differences in state statutes, whether the metric counts unique victims versus incidents, and whether data are adjusted for demographic or policing differences. Absent that metadata, headline rankings—highest and lowest—offer limited guidance for designing interventions or interpreting public safety trends ^{[4] [5]}.

7. How to Use These Findings Responsibly: Questions Reporters and Policymakers Should Ask

Given the divergences, a responsible approach requires asking: which dataset was used, what legal definitions were applied, what time period is covered, and how are underreporting and data submission delays handled? The packet’s sources repeatedly remind readers that context changes interpretation—Alaska’s repeated prominence is meaningful, but policy responses should be guided by clarified metrics and corroborating datasets rather than a single headline rate ^{[1] [4] [2]}.

8. Bottom Line: A Qualified Answer and Next Steps for Clarification

The safest, evidence-aligned statement is that Alaska repeatedly appears as the state with the highest reported rape rate in 2025 across multiple analyses, while New Jersey and a handful of Northeastern states are often shown among the lowest, but the exact rates differ substantially between sources ^{[1] [2]}. To settle the discrepancy, consult the original datasets cited (FBI Crime Data Explorer versus the aggregations behind the larger per-capita figures) and request methodological notes about definitions and data cleaning from each publisher before treating any single numeric ranking as definitive ^{[2] [4]}.