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How have verified death tolls of women and children changed over time and what are the trends since October 7?
Executive summary
Verified tallies of women and children killed in Gaza have shifted repeatedly as different agencies revised methodologies: UN/OCHA’s analysis of verified deaths for a six‑month window found about 44% were children and 26% women (together close to 70% of verified victims) [1]. Independent peer‑reviewed studies and later analyses have argued overall death totals may be undercounts and that women, children and the elderly comprised a large share — for example a Lancet/LSHTM line that found roughly 59% of deaths were women, children or elderly for a measured period [2] [3].
1. Why the headline percentages moved: competing datasets and changing methods
Early and widely cited percentages came from UN agencies that were reporting only "verified" deaths from hospital, morgue or official lists; that UN analysis covering about six months concluded 44% of verified victims were children and 26% were women [1]. By contrast, other UN releases and the Gaza Health Ministry used different inclusion rules and identification confidence levels; when OCHA switched which Gaza source it relayed in May 2024 it produced a sharp revision in the proportion attributed to women and children, a change the Washington Institute traces to changing inputs and attribution between GMO, MOH and media lists [4] [5].
2. Independent research vs. official tallies: higher totals and different demographic mixes
Peer‑reviewed and academic studies published after the early months argued that overall deaths were substantially higher than initial official counts and that demographic shares remained weighted toward non‑combatants: a Lancet/LSHTM‑linked analysis estimated 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury through June 2024 and suggested totals likely exceeded 70,000 by October 2024, noting some 59% of those deaths were women, children and the elderly [2] [3]. Other independent studies similarly said official hospital‑based counts probably undercounted fatalities as health services and registries collapsed [6].
3. The UN’s “verified” label and what it means for women/children shares
UN “verified” counts are conservative by design — they require specific corroboration — and several UN products emphasize that verified deaths are a subset of all reported fatalities. The UN Human Rights Office’s verification work found that, for a period, nearly 70% of verified deaths were women and children because the verified subset skewed toward certain kinds of identifiable civilian casualties [1] [7]. Critics and some analysts argued that focusing on verified deaths can produce a different demographic picture than ministry totals that include unidentified bodies or broader reporting streams [4] [5].
4. Timeline since October 7: major inflection points in the data
After the initial shock of October 7, 2023, early tallies came from hospitals and morgues and showed large shares of children among early fatalities; by May 2024 the Gaza ministry began to include unidentified bodies (a near‑third of the toll at one point), which changed both totals and demographic breakdowns as IDs were later confirmed or reclassified [8] [9]. In May 2024 OCHA’s relay and subsequent adjustments produced a notable drop in the reported share of women and children due to source changes; through 2024–25 independent studies and later UN verifications continued to stress that women and children made up a significant share of verified deaths [5] [4] [1].
5. Reconciling the disagreements: limitations and what each source can — and cannot — show
Available sources document methodological disagreements: ministry lists may include unverified or unidentified bodies until later identification [8] [9]; UN verification methods are stricter and produce different demographic percentages [1]; academic studies apply statistical adjustments and excess‑mortality methods that can raise total counts and alter age/sex composition estimates [2] [3]. None of the cited sources provides a single definitive, final disaggregated timeline that reconciles every revision, and available sources do not mention a universally accepted final proportion for women and children across the whole conflict.
6. What this means for readers seeking trends since October 7
Trendwise: multiple independent analyses and UN verifications consistently show women and children have been a large share of verified civilian deaths since October 7, even if the exact percentage varies depending on dataset and cut‑off dates [1] [3]. When broader statistical corrections are applied, researchers argue total deaths are higher and that women, children and the elderly remain a substantial fraction of fatalities [2] [6]. Readers should expect continued revisions as bodies are identified, methodologies are clarified, and retrospective studies are published [4].
7. How to follow updates and interpret future revisions
Track three things when new figures appear: (a) the data source (Gaza MOH, UN/OCHA, academic study), (b) whether figures are “verified” or reported/unidentified, and (c) the date range covered — changes in any of these explain sudden shifts in the share of women and children reported [4] [8]. For context, consult both UN verification reports and peer‑reviewed analyses to see where they agree (large civilian share) and where they differ (exact percentages and total counts) [1] [2].