How do crime rates in blue states compare to red states in terms of violent crime in 2024?

1. Red states look worse — if you compare whole states

Analyses that classify entire states as “red” or “blue” and then compare state-level homicide averages tend to show higher murder rates in red states. Commentators and organizations cited in the debate point to multi-year averages where red states have higher homicide rates than blue states, and some reporting and advocacy groups have emphasized that red-state murder rates have outpaced blue-state rates over extended periods ^{[1] [4]}. The Manhattan Institute brief explicitly notes that at the state level “Republican states are clearly more violent” before urging caution about interpretation ^[1].

2. Blue cities drive the counterargument — worst violence often in big Democratic cities inside red states

Opposing analyses focus on cities and counties. Reporting shows that many of the metropolitan areas with the highest murder rates are Democratic-run cities that happen to be located in Republican-led states — examples cited in later coverage include places such as Memphis, St. Louis, Jackson and others — and advocates on the right use this to argue the problem is urban rather than partisan at the state level ^{[3] [5]}. Axios’s analysis of FBI 2024 data found that 13 of the 20 U.S. cities with the highest murder rates were in Republican-led states, illustrating the “blue cities in red states” pattern ^[6].

3. Aggregation and control variables change the story

Researchers warn that conclusions pivot on how you aggregate data (state vs. county vs. city) and whether you control for social and demographic factors. The Manhattan Institute brief by Borjas and VerBruggen argues that when you compare regions with similar demographic and economic characteristics — controlling for age, income and racial composition — the difference in homicide rates between red and blue areas can disappear, which undercuts simple partisan narratives ^{[2] [1]}. Gigafact and other overviews emphasize similar cautions about interpretation and the multifactorial causes of crime ^[7].

4. Different metrics matter: homicide vs. broader violent crime

Journalists and analysts repeatedly note homicide is a clearer measure for cross-jurisdiction comparisons because it is harder to undercount or reclassify than some other violent-crime categories. Some sources point to overall violent-crime rates and per‑capita violent-crime measures that paint slightly different pictures at city and state levels — for example, FBI 2024 reporting that the national homicide rate fell in 2024 and that violent-crime trends have been downward in many large cities ^{[6] [8]}. The Independent Institute also cautions that focusing only on homicides “distorts other aspects of crime” such as robbery, assault, clearance rates and victimization ^[5].

5. Political messaging and selective emphasis shape public perception

Both parties and allied think tanks curate the same underlying data to support different narratives. Democrats highlight that the deadliest counties and cities are often in or near blue jurisdictions; Republicans emphasize higher state-level murder rates in red states and the share of violent cities located in Republican states. The Manhattan Institute authors explicitly call out that the debate is “sensitive to how the researcher chooses to analyze the data,” and urge focusing on policy rather than partisan scoring ^{[1] [2]}.

6. What the available sources do not say (important limits)

Available sources do not present a single authoritative, national 2024 breakdown that reconciles state-, county-, and city-level trends into one definitive partisan verdict. They also do not provide a consensus causal explanation tying partisanship itself to crime rates; instead, analyses emphasize demographic, economic and local governance factors as confounders ^{[1] [2]}. Detailed, peer‑reviewed causal studies using longitudinal data are not cited in the provided material.

7. Bottom line for readers and policymakers

If you want a one-line answer: the apparent partisan pattern depends on scale. State-level comparisons often show higher homicide rates in red states; city- and county-level data often show the worst violence concentrated in Democratic-run cities — many of them inside red states ^{[1] [3] [6]}. Experts in the cited debates recommend using controlled comparisons and focusing on concrete local policies and socioeconomic drivers rather than declaring simple red-versus-blue blame based on raw rates ^{[2] [1]}.