Fact check: How does the crime rate in Washington D.C. compare to cities like Chicago and Baltimore in 2025?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available data, Washington D.C.'s crime rate in 2025 compares favorably to both Chicago and Baltimore. The evidence shows that D.C. has experienced significant crime reductions, with violent crime falling 26% in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 and homicides decreasing 12% year-over-year ^[1]. Additionally, robberies have dropped 28% in 2025 compared to the same point in 2024 ^[1].

When examining homicide rates specifically, Washington D.C. has a murder rate of 17.0 per 100,000 people, ranking 19th nationally, while Baltimore has a significantly higher rate of 51.1 per 100,000 and Chicago has 24.0 per 100,000 ^[2]. This places D.C. substantially below both cities in terms of homicide rates.

The broader national trend supports D.C.'s improvement, with homicide rates across 30 study cities falling 17% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, and 14% lower than pre-pandemic 2019 levels ^[3]. Much of this decline has been driven by large decreases in cities with historically high homicide levels, such as Baltimore ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal important contextual information not addressed in the original question:

• More than 60% of cities studied still have homicide rates above pre-2020 levels ^[3], indicating that while improvements have occurred, many cities including potentially D.C. remain elevated compared to historical norms.
• There appears to be conflicting data regarding D.C.'s recent trends. While most sources show decreasing crime rates, one analysis indicates that Washington D.C. experienced a 42.4% increase in its homicide rate since last year ^[4], which directly contradicts other reported decreases.
• Political figures, particularly President Trump, have claimed that crime is "out of control" in Washington D.C. and that crime statistics are being manipulated ^[5]. This suggests there may be political motivations for either emphasizing or downplaying crime statistics, with politicians potentially benefiting from narratives that support their policy positions or electoral prospects.
• The reliability of crime reporting systems has been questioned, though experts argue that evidence supporting current crime reporting through the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program and National Crime Victimization Survey is overwhelming ^[5].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself appears neutral and factual, simply requesting a comparison of crime rates between three major cities. However, the context surrounding crime statistics reveals potential areas of concern:

• Political manipulation of crime narratives is evident, with claims that D.C. crime is "out of control" being contradicted by actual data showing violent crime falling after peaking in 2023 ^{[6] [1]}.
• The timing and framing of crime statistics may be selectively used by different political actors. Politicians like Trump would benefit from portraying urban crime as out of control to support tough-on-crime policies, while local officials and opposing politicians would benefit from emphasizing crime reductions to demonstrate effective governance.
• Conflicting data points in the analyses (p3_s3 vs. other sources) suggest either methodological differences in measurement or potential inconsistencies in reporting that could be exploited to support different narratives about crime trends.