Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: What is the current murder rate in Washington D.C. as of 2025?
Executive Summary
As of mid-2025, Washington, D.C.’s homicide counts and rates show a clear downward trend compared with 2023: preliminary Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) data report 109 homicides year-to-date in 2025, a roughly 22–34% decline versus 2024 and 2023 baselines depending on the comparator used [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and local data also show the district’s homicide rate per 100,000 residents fell to the mid-to-high 20s in 2024, materially lower than a 2023 spike [4] [5].
1. Why the simple question about “current murder rate” is trickier than it looks
A single, up-to-the-minute “murder rate” requires a defined time window (calendar year, year-to-date, rolling 12 months) and a population denominator; different choices produce different headlines. The MPD’s 2025 year-to-date figure of 109 homicides is presented as a raw count and compared to prior years for percent changes, but it is not the same as a per‑100,000 resident rate [1]. Independent analyses convert counts to a standard rate; one academic summary placed the 2024 homicide rate at about 27.3 per 100,000, down from a 2023 figure around 39.4 per 100,000, illustrating how selection of year and method matters [4].
2. What the police data say about 2025 so far—and what “down” means numerically
MPD preliminary dashboards for 2025 show overall crime down 7% and violent crime down 25% in the first half of 2025, with homicide counts falling compared with the surge year of 2023 [2]. The MPD’s year-to-date homicide count of 109 homicides in 2025 is reported as a 22% decrease compared to the prior year figure used in their comparison, indicating a substantive short-term improvement in homicides and violent crime as tracked by local law enforcement [1] [2]. These are preliminary operational data; final annual rates require population estimates and full-year counts.
3. Independent academic and media calculations put rates in context
Publicly cited academic work and media fact-checks recalculated homicide counts into per-capita rates to compare with other cities and prior years. One analysis reported a 2024 homicide rate near 27.3 per 100,000, down from about 39.4 in 2023—showing the 2023 spike was atypical and that 2024 and 2025 represent a return toward lower rates [4] [5]. These conversions help compare D.C. internationally and across U.S. jurisdictions, but they depend on which population estimate is used and whether year‑to‑date counts are annualized.
4. Conflicting headlines and political framing have shaped public perception
Multiple narratives compete: some national political claims highlighted high comparative murder rates for shock value, while local MPD data and independent checks emphasize declines since 2023. Fact‑checking pieces note that D.C.’s rate peaked in 2023 and has fallen substantially through 2024 and into 2025, countering some political assertions [3] [5]. The data themselves do not carry policy prescriptions, but both law enforcement reporting and independent researchers frame the same underlying decline through different statistics and comparators [2] [3].
5. What the percentage drops actually represent for public safety understanding
Reported percentage declines—22% fewer homicides year-to-date in 2025 versus 2024 and violent crime down 25% in early 2025—represent meaningful reductions in homicides and violent incidents according to MPD preliminary tallies [1] [2]. Translating these percent changes into risk for individual residents requires converting counts to per‑100,000 rates and considering neighborhood, demographic, and temporal variability. Independent analyses showing the 2024 rate near the mid‑20s per 100,000 imply the city is moving away from the elevated risks seen in 2023 [4].
6. Data limitations and what to watch for in final reporting
The MPD figures cited are preliminary and year-to-date, and academic rates use population estimates that can shift per U.S. Census updates; final 2025 annual rates may revise today’s picture. Dashboards and media reports often update monthly; readers should check MPD’s official “District Crime Data at a Glance” and later independent reconciliations for finalized counts and per‑capita rates [1] [2]. Watch for end-of-year reconciliation and how analysts annualize partial-year counts when producing per‑100,000 figures [4].
7. Bottom line: a concise numeric answer grounded in available data
Using the MPD’s reported 2025 year-to-date count of 109 homicides and the independent context that the 2024 homicide rate was about 27.3 per 100,000 (down from roughly 39.4 in 2023), the best summary is this: Homicides in D.C. fell substantially through mid-2025 versus 2023–24 peaks, with 2024–2025 rates in the mid‑20s per 100,000 in recent calculations and 2025 counts down roughly 20–34% depending on the comparator [1] [2] [4] [3]. For an exact current per‑100,000 figure for 2025, final population-adjusted annual data will be needed from MPD and census estimates [1] [4].