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Did Bill O'Reilly's ratings decline before his termination from Fox News?
Executive summary
Bill O’Reilly’s program remained a ratings powerhouse through early 2017 — averaging nearly 4 million viewers in the first quarter of 2017 — and advertisers fled after The New York Times’ report on settlements, even as viewers initially held steady [1] [2]. However, when he took a weeklong vacation just before his April 2017 firing, substitute hosts drew substantially smaller audiences — Nielsen figures cited declines of about 23–26% during that week — and Fox’s 8 p.m. hour later showed a year-over-year ratings dip after his departure [3] [4] [5].
1. O’Reilly was still drawing large audiences right up to the controversy
In the months surrounding his dismissal, The O’Reilly Factor posted some of its strongest numbers: the show “averaged just under 4 million viewers for the first three months of 2017,” and in the first quarter of 2017 he “averaged more than 4 million viewers overall” according to contemporary reporting [2] [1]. Media analysis also noted that O’Reilly’s election- and early-Trump-era viewership was amplified by the political cycle [1].
2. Advertiser exodus preceded any viewer collapse
After The New York Times reported multiple settlements, roughly 60 advertisers pulled spots from O’Reilly’s show and Kantar Media reported advertising minutes were cut by more than half — a corporate and commercial shock that did not immediately translate into lost viewers [2] [4]. Multiple sources emphasize that advertiser withdrawals were dramatic even as ratings initially remained strong [2] [4].
3. Viewer drop appeared during his vacation with guest hosts
When O’Reilly was on a weeklong vacation in April 2017 and substitutes (Dana Perino, Eric Bolling, Greg Gutfeld) filled in, Nielsen-based reports showed a clear short-term decline: one count put the four-day decline at about 23% for substitute shows versus O’Reilly’s prior audiences, and Wikipedia summarizes a 26% drop during his vacation week [3] [4]. Local and national outlets reported Perino’s and others’ numbers as markedly lower than O’Reilly’s usual audience [3].
4. Ratings after his firing were mixed but trended downward for that slot
Analysts and outlets tracked Fox’s 8 p.m. hour after O’Reilly’s April 19, 2017 firing and reported declines: Fox experienced a year-over-year audience slip (about 13% cited in one piece) in the period after his exit, and some commentary argued the network had not collapsed but had lost a major prime-time anchor’s lead-in value [5]. Conservative outlets and opinion pieces offered a counter-narrative that much of the audience simply redistributed across Fox’s schedule or to competitors, but mainstream coverage recorded measurable declines [6] [5].
5. Contextual factors complicate a simple “decline before firing” story
Several points complicate reading the numbers as a pre-termination collapse. First, O’Reilly’s ratings were unusually strong because of the 2016 election and early Trump coverage — meaning year-to-year comparisons are affected by political cycles [1]. Second, many sources caution that short-term drops with substitute hosts are common and do not always predict long-term audience behavior; still, the decline during the vacation was sizable and well-documented [3] [4]. Third, some analysts emphasized that while minute-by-minute demo ratings for O’Reilly could appear modest in certain advertiser-skewing demos, overall reach and weekly averages painted a different picture [7].
6. Where reporting disagrees and what remains unaddressed
Reports agree that advertising departures preceded and outpaced any viewer losses [2], and they converge on the headline that substitute-hosted episodes had materially lower viewership in April 2017 [3] [4]. Where sources disagree is on how consequential those short-term declines were for Fox’s long-term primetime health; some outlets emphasize manageable drops and recovery potential, while others frame the post-O’Reilly era as a clear ratings setback for the 8 p.m. hour [5] [6]. Available sources do not mention internal Fox decision-making timelines beyond public advertiser and ratings shifts, so causal chains linking ratings dips to the firing — beyond the advertiser pressure and New York Times revelations — are not fully documented here (not found in current reporting).
7. Bottom line for the original question
Yes: there was a measurable, short-term ratings decline during the week O’Reilly was on vacation immediately before his firing (reports cite roughly 23–26% drops versus his normal audience), but across the broader period he was still averaging roughly 4 million viewers and initial reporting shows advertisers left first while viewers held relatively steady until that vacation window [3] [4] [2] [1]. Longer-term ratings after his exit showed a decline in the 8 p.m. hour, though analysts debate how much of that was structural versus cyclical [5] [6].