Do media outlets with strong political affiliations affect voter turnout in US elections?
Executive summary
Academic studies find limited but measurable effects of partisan media on vote shares while disagreeing on turnout: an NBER summary reports Fox News increased Republican vote share by 0.4–0.7 percentage points and says it affected turnout [1], while the original “Fox News Effect” paper reports no significant effect on turnout and rules out effects larger than 0.5 percentage points [2]. National data show recent elections have seen historically high turnout (66% in 2020, 64% in 2024) and large swings driven by polarization and mobilization, complicating attribution to single media outlets [3].
1. Partisan outlets can shift votes — but turnout effects are contested
Careful empirical work finds partisan broadcasters change vote margins in measurable ways; an NBER digest summarizes research that towns with Fox News saw Republican gains of roughly 0.4–0.7 points and reports effects on turnout [1]. The underlying academic paper by DellaVigna et al., however, reports no significant effect of Fox News on voter turnout and states it can rule out a turnout effect larger than 0.5 percentage points [2]. The two summaries illustrate a real scholarly debate: vote-share effects are easier to detect than clear, large changes in turnout [1] [2].
2. Why turnout is hard to attribute to media alone
Turnout measurement and causal attribution are both difficult. The University of Florida Election Lab and Census-based CPS supplements are used to standardize turnout metrics because self-reported surveys suffer over-report bias [4] [5]. Pew researchers point to rising polarization as a primary driver of turnout increases in 2020 and 2024 — 66% in 2020 and 64% in 2024 — suggesting broad social dynamics, not just media exposure, explain high participation [3]. That makes isolating the marginal effect of a single outlet on turnout analytically challenging [4] [3].
3. Different methods yield different conclusions
The NBER digest and the Berkeley/Chicago working paper draw on similar historical rollout variation but interpret results differently: NBER highlights both vote-share and turnout impacts [1], while the DellaVigna et al. draft emphasizes robust evidence for vote-share shifts and explicitly finds “no significant effect” on turnout [2]. This is a methodological red flag for readers: outcome definitions, model specifications, and which controls are included change whether turnout appears affected [1] [2].
4. Modern dynamics complicate the media–turnout link
Post-2020 political dynamics—microtargeted advertising, social media, and misinformation—play large roles in mobilization and may dwarf single-outlet effects [6]. Reuters-style analyses and other reporters note targeted emotional ads and social platforms as fundamental drivers of mobilization and information fragmentation, which interact with legacy media in complex ways [6]. In short, partisan TV is one node in a much larger ecosystem of mobilization tools [6].
5. What the big-data turnout facts say about impact size
Nationwide turnout spikes in 2020 and 2024 were historically large [3]. These macro trends set a high baseline that any single media outlet would struggle to move by more than a fraction of a percentage point without extraordinarily broad reach. The DellaVigna paper’s conclusion that turnout effects, if present, are small (less than ~0.5 points) aligns with this constraint [2] [3].
6. Competing viewpoints and hidden incentives
News outlets and advocacy actors have incentives to emphasize different narratives. Outlets with partisan identities may highlight mobilization they helped create; academic summaries (NBER) that echo those impacts should be read alongside original papers [1] [2]. Media organizations also frame their own impartiality claims differently — for example, AP emphasizes “no spin, no bias” in its products [7] — reminding readers that assessments of media influence often reflect institutional positioning [7].
7. Practical takeaway for readers and policymakers
If your question is whether partisan media can materially change who wins close races, the evidence says yes: modest vote-share shifts are credible [1] [2]. If the question is whether such outlets substantially raise or depress overall turnout, the strongest available academic work reviewed here finds no large effect on turnout and limits any effect to small fractions of a percentage point [2]. National turnout surges in recent elections are better explained by polarization and multifaceted mobilization strategies than by a single channel alone [3] [6].
Limitations: this analysis relies on the cited summaries and papers in the provided set; available sources do not mention experimental or more recent causal studies beyond those summarized here (not found in current reporting).