If australoa is heavily nuked in full scale nuclear war and experienced invasion, australia vs nz which is safer overall if forced to pick one under this circumstance :)
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Executive summary
If the hypothetical is that Australia is already heavily nuked and invaded, New Zealand is the relatively safer pick for overall survivability — largely because research flags New Zealand’s lower probability of being targeted, its nuclear‑free political stance, and strong food‑self‑sufficiency, while Australia’s larger agricultural and infrastructure base is offset by being a more likely strategic target and by the premise that it has been “heavily nuked” already [1] [2] [3].
1. What the studies actually measured — survivability, not sanctuary
Researchers who modeled “abrupt sunlight‑reducing scenarios” such as full nuclear war ranked Australia and New Zealand among the island nations most capable of producing enough food post‑catastrophe, with Australia usually scoring highest for infrastructure, energy surplus and food buffers and New Zealand noted for efficient food exports and resilience under major crop reductions [1] [4] [2]. Those findings describe relative survivability — the ability to sustain agriculture and avoid pre‑industrial collapse — not immunity from attack or immediate safety for every region [1] [5].
2. Why New Zealand’s political profile matters in an invasion-after-nuking scenario
Multiple outlets and the paper’s authors point out New Zealand’s longstanding nuclear‑free policy as a factor reducing its likelihood of being a primary target in a great‑power exchange, an advantage that becomes meaningful if Australia’s alliance ties make it more attractive to rivals or reprisals [1] [2] [3]. In plain terms, if Australia has already been “heavily nuked and invaded” in the premise, New Zealand’s less entangled posture and smaller military profile make it a safer candidate for remaining intact and less attractive to occupying forces [1] [2].
3. Australia’s strengths that matter — and their limits once the country is damaged
The study and reporting highlight Australia’s huge food production capacity, energy and infrastructure surplus, and potential to “help reboot” civilization, which would be decisive if those systems remain functional [4] [6]. However, the user’s scenario specifies Australia is “heavily nuked and experienced invasion,” and the literature itself warns that close military ties increase targeting risk — a feature that straightaway reduces Australia’s practical safety in this scenario [1] [2]. The academic comparisons therefore favor Australia only when it remains largely intact; they do not support Australia as safer if it is already devastated and occupied [1].
4. Logistics, geography, and access: why isolation isn’t a full defense
Researchers and commentators repeatedly cite geographic isolation, oceanic buffers and favourable regional climate as reasons both countries would fare better in a global nuclear winter and be less exposed to fallout patterns that cripple mid‑latitude food belts [1] [7]. But the sources also imply limits: isolation helps slow fallout and limit immediate targets, yet it does not guarantee immunity from refugee pressures, resource competition, or deliberate invasion if an aggressor has logistical intent — and reporting that billionaires discuss bunkers in New Zealand underscores a market and political element to the narrative rather than a technical guarantee [8] [9].
5. Competing narratives and reporting agendas to watch
Media framing leans toward dramatic, attention‑grabbing claims — “last places left standing” and celebrity panic narratives — drawing on Annie Jacobsen’s scenario work and simulation studies that stress relative survivability but not precise forecasts [5] [10]. Some outlets emphasize Australia’s capacity while others highlight New Zealand’s political distance from allies; these emphases reflect different implicit agendas — national boosterism, alarmism, or selling exclusivity — and readers should treat certainty claims cautiously [3] [11].
6. Bottom line and limits of available reporting
Based on the cited studies and expert commentary, if forced to choose under the exact premise that Australia is already heavily nuked and invaded, New Zealand is the safer overall option because it is less likely to have been an initial target, retains strong food‑production resilience per the models, and benefits from a political profile that reduces attack probability; however, the sources do not model the precise dynamics of an occupying force or the social‑political fallout of mass migration, and thus conclusions beyond relative safety are beyond what the provided reporting supports [1] [2] [4].