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Fact check: Post Title: A Wider War Has Already Started in Europe Comment Chain: 1. For the past three years, Russia has used missiles and drones to locate and destroy vital infrastructure in Ukraine—power plants, dams, electrical-transmission lines. Everyone understands these attacks are acts of war, no matter how steadfastly Vladimir Putin describes them as part of a “special military operation.” When Russia targets other European neighbors, though, the West resorts to its own euphemisms to avoid directly acknowledging what Putin is doing. Saboteurs have targeted a number of other strategically significant assets in Europe—munitions factories, crucial rail lines—along with civilian infrastructure such as warehouses and malls. Investigators believe that Russia is behind the attacks. European officials would be better off honestly admitting the reality they're confronting. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is only the most conspicuous part of what looks like an ever more globalized war. Acknowledging Russia is engaging in acts of war would not oblige the EU or countries to immediately retaliate with military force. But the term war has a way of concentrating the mind. Using it might make European leaders think much harder about defending themselves when they cannot rely on the U.S. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and arguably since the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, democratic Europe has been predisposed to think about war as an issue for Washington to handle, not as a problem requiring their own leadership. European states might provide some soldiers and equipment but do not have the burden of any serious planning or strategizing. That lax attitude is no longer tenable. Every leader on the continent needs to understand that Putin wishes to upend the entire European order—and that the U.S. is no longer trustworthy as a long-term ally. Although European leaders have largely refused to think about war, the EU’s member nations and other democracies on the continent still have all the prerequisites for military power. EU member nations maintain military forces with some of the most advanced equipment in the world. Although economies of the U.S., China, and many developing countries are growing much faster, the EU, Britain, and other European democracies together have a population of about half a billion people and account for about one-fifth of world GDP. The combination of Putin’s aggression and Trump’s indifference should be an opportunity for Europe to take charge of its own defense. The first vital step in this realization is to acknowledge what’s already happening: Call a war a war. ⏬ Abridged (shortened) article threads ⏬ 7 min with added links 📖 [https://bsky.app/profile/johnhatchard.bsky.social/post/3lfo34ijjq22c](https://bsky.app/profile/johnhatchard.bsky.social/post/3lfo34ijjq22c) 2. "The combination of Putin’s aggression and Trump’s indifference should be an opportunity for Europe to take charge of its own defense." Let's hope so for Europe. For a common defense that's effective means federalization, which I don't see as possible given the vast differences within the EU (I mean look at Hungary and Slovakia recently). But one can hope. 3. I don't think federalization is needed, for common defence we still have NATO. What is needed is EU weapons manufacturing and R&D. So even if US bails out of NATO, we would still be armed enough to deter potential enemies. (and actual enemies, russia) Original Reddit link: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1i0u8ki/comment/m72mvgb/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Checked on January 14, 2025

1. Summary of the results

The analyses strongly support the premise that a wider conflict is already occurring in Europe, extending beyond the conventional warfare in Ukraine. Russia has been conducting systematic sabotage operations across Europe, including attacks on critical infrastructure such as:

  • Cutting undersea power cables between Estonia and Finland
  • Targeting power plants and rail lines
  • Disrupting communications through surveillance vessels
  • Causing explosions in cargo shipments [1]

The conflict has exposed significant vulnerabilities in European defense capabilities [2], and Russia's actions are establishing "a new political and military reality in Europe" [3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several crucial pieces of context are missing from the original statement:

1. Defense Industrial Context: The war in Ukraine has exposed significant vulnerabilities in both US and EU defense production capabilities [2], suggesting the challenge is not just political but industrial.

2. Broader Geographic Threats: The security challenges extend beyond Russia to include:

  • Potential threats from China
  • Instability in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Economic and strategic challenges in Europe's southern neighborhood [3]

3. Historical Dependencies: Europe has been historically dependent on US security guarantees, and currently lacks the capability to defend itself independently [4].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement contains several potential biases or oversimplifications:

1. Oversimplification of European Unity: The statement suggests Europe could simply "take charge of its own defense," but this overlooks the complex reality of Europe's current defense capabilities and industrial base limitations [4] [2].

2. Focus on Putin: While the statement emphasizes Putin's personal role, the analyses suggest that Russia will remain a threat regardless of leadership, as long as it maintains a "revisionist and imperialist" mindset [3].

3. Euphemistic Language: While the statement criticizes European officials for using euphemisms, it doesn't acknowledge that formal recognition of these acts as "war" could have significant diplomatic and legal implications [1].

Those who benefit from these narratives include:

  • Defense contractors and military-industrial complexes in both Europe and the US who would benefit from increased military spending
  • Political actors advocating for greater European autonomy
  • Russian leadership, who benefit from creating uncertainty and division within European alliance structures
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