Which European fighter programs could realistically replace the F-35 for a country like Portugal, and what trade-offs do they entail?
Executive summary
Portugal has publicly signalled a pivot away from buying U.S. F-35s toward European alternatives because of concerns about U.S. reliability and political predictability, with Rafale, Eurofighter and Saab’s Gripen repeatedly named as the leading options and Turkey’s KAAN sometimes mentioned despite being developmental [1] [2] [3]. Each European choice offers gains in industrial return and perceived sovereignty but sacrifices some of the F-35’s stealth, sensor fusion and established fifth‑generation networking—trade‑offs that revolve around cost, capability and political alignment [4] [5] [6].
1. Strategic backdrop: why Portugal is rethinking the F-35
Portugal’s defence minister and senior air force officials have framed the reassessment as a response to shifts in U.S. policy and concerns that Washington could impose operational or logistical limitations on F-35 users, prompting Lisbon to prioritise European suppliers and national industrial participation [1] [6] [2]. Reporting also shows Portugal never formally joined the F-35 programme and has been explicit about weighing European industrial returns and autonomy as part of procurement calculus [7] [8].
2. Saab Gripen: the pragmatic, cost-conscious contender
Saab’s Gripen E/F is portrayed across sources as the most budget‑friendly European option, optimised for low operating costs, ease of maintenance, rapid turnaround and compatibility with NATO systems—an attractive fit for a smaller air force like Portugal’s seeking value and operational flexibility [9] [5] [10]. However, the Gripen is a 4.5‑generation design and lacks the F-35’s stealth and sensor‑fusion capabilities, meaning Portugal would trade some survivability and networked situational awareness for affordability and sustainment simplicity [6] [5].
3. Dassault Rafale: balanced performance and industrial diplomacy
The Rafale is presented as a leading political and technical compromise: a highly capable 4.5‑generation multirole fighter with strong interoperability among current European operators and a manufacturer ready to offer industrial partnerships—aligning with Lisbon’s stated priorities for European supply chains and alliance commonality [4] [11]. The trade‑off here is that, while Rafale offers broad mission versatility and national‑level autonomy, it still does not fully replicate the F-35’s fifth‑generation stealth and integrated sensor suite, and acquisition costs may be comparable or higher than alternatives [4] [5].
4. Eurofighter Typhoon: air-superiority power with higher lifecycle cost
Eurofighter is repeatedly cited as Europe’s high‑end option, excelling in air‑superiority and survivability via agility and sensors, and offering strong European industrial ties; yet most reporting signals higher acquisition and operational costs relative to other options, which could strain Portugal’s defence budget and force structure plans [11] [8] [12]. Choosing Typhoon would prioritise performance and continental industrial integration at the expense of higher sustainment bills and continued dependence on multinational programme governance [8] [12].
5. KAAN and other emerging alternatives: promise versus maturity
Turkish Aerospace’s KAAN is listed among potential options in some coverage, but it remains a developmental fifth‑generation program and therefore carries schedule, certification and political‑risk uncertainties that make it a less immediately realistic replacement for Portugal compared with mature platforms [3] [2]. Sources note this immaturity as a key limitation for countries needing timely, guaranteed deliveries [3].
6. Hidden agendas, political signalling and the final calculus
Reporting repeatedly connects Portugal’s procurement debate to broader political signalling—domestic political positioning, European industrial lobbying and reactions to U.S. foreign policy—which suggests that technical evaluation will be inseparable from diplomatic and industrial leverage considerations [1] [8] [7]. Analysts and officials caution that the choice will be as much political as technical: European jets promise strategic autonomy and industrial returns, while the F-35 offers unique stealth and networked advantages that smaller allies have deemed decisive [12] [6].
7. Bottom line: realistic replacements and their trade-offs
Realistically, the Rafale, Eurofighter and Gripen constitute the viable European alternatives for Portugal today: Gripen for affordability and low operating cost, Rafale for balanced multirole capability plus strong Franco‑Portuguese industrial levers, and Eurofighter for air‑superiority at higher lifecycle cost; KAAN remains aspirational but not immediately practical [9] [4] [11] [3]. Each option sacrifices some degree of the F-35’s stealth and sensor fusion, and the decision will hinge on how Lisbon weights operational capability against cost, sovereignty, NATO interoperability and industrial returns [5] [6] [8].