Is russia at war with ukraine
Executive summary
Yes — the available reporting shows an active, ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine: large-scale Russian military operations, repeated Russian strikes inside Ukraine, Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russian territory, territorial contests and steady combat assessments by independent monitors all demonstrate sustained hostilities [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Evidence of active combat across multiple fronts
Independent monitoring organizations and multiple media accounts document continued offensive operations, strikes and counterstrikes: ISW reports Russian advances, daily attacks and long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and energy infrastructure as of early January 2026 [1] [2], while Ukrainian forces are reported to carry out long‑range strikes against Russian depots and infrastructure [1], and NATO and other observers note Russian flights and strikes near NATO airspace as part of a broader campaign [5].
2. Scale, tempo and changing battlefield dynamics
The conflict is neither static nor low‑level: ISW and Russia Matters compile data showing measurable territory gains and losses — Russia reportedly added dozens of square miles in recent weeks even as advances slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026 — and ISW documents fluctuations in attack tempo, including periods of 15–16 Russian attacks per day in some sectors [2] [3] [6]. These metrics point to an intense, attritional war rather than sporadic border incidents [2] [3].
3. Civilian toll, infrastructure strikes and broader effects
Reporting highlights repeated strikes on civilian infrastructure and significant humanitarian effects: summaries compiled in late 2025 and January 2026 attribute thousands of civilian casualties and widespread damage to energy and rail networks after intensified Russian strikes; outlets report mass blackouts and attacks on facilities that threaten nuclear and energy systems, with Ukrainian leaders warning the damage is designed to coerce and “freeze” Ukraine into submission [3] [7] [6].
4. Reciprocal strikes and the war’s geographic reach
The conflict extends beyond Ukrainian territory: Ukrainian long‑range drone and missile strikes have hit Russian oblasts and energy or military sites inside Russia, and Ukrainian operations have targeted ammunition arsenals supplying Russian military districts [1] [8]. Conversely, ISW traces Russian attempts to shape the wider European security environment through covert or “Phase Zero” activities — cyber, informational and flights probing NATO responses — that suggest the war’s reverberations go beyond the front lines [1] [5].
5. Diplomacy, ceasefire talk and competing narratives
High‑level diplomatic traffic and peace discussions coexist with combat: commentators and policy forums note ongoing negotiations and proposed guarantees — including work on peace proposals discussed by US and Ukrainian officials and reporting that U.S./European actors and Ukraine are negotiating security packages — even as both sides contest facts on the ground, and Russian official claims about battlefield gains are frequently disputed by independent observers [9] [4]. Analysts caution that talks often reflect political calculations and that Moscow’s public narratives can aim to shape bargaining leverage rather than mirror battlefield reality [4] [10].
6. Bottom line: legal and practical reality of “war”
Practically and legally, the situation matches the characteristics of an interstate armed conflict: sustained, organized military operations involving regular forces, cross‑border strikes, occupation of territory and significant civilian harm — all documented by ISW, major media and analytical institutes in January 2026 — which supports the plain fact that Russia is at war with Ukraine as of these reports [1] [2] [3] [7].