Is Russia winning the war
Executive summary
Russia has made measurable territorial gains recently — pro‑Ukrainian mapping and ISW-linked analyses show Russia gained roughly 247–505 square miles/kilometres in recent weeks and November respectively, and Moscow claims captures of key cities such as Pokrovsk even as Kyiv denies full loss [1] [2] [3]. At the same time Ukraine is repelling many assaults, inflicting heavy casualties, and both sides continue high‑intensity strikes and diplomacy — Russia launched mass missile/drone barrages (704 overnight on Dec. 5–6 per ISW reporting) while peace talks proceed [4] [5] [6].
1. Tactical gains, but not strategic closure
Open‑source battlefield trackers and ISW‑derived analysis report that Russian forces increased territorial control in November — with one synthesis noting a four‑week gain of 247 square miles and another project reporting roughly 505 square kilometres captured in November — evidence of faster Russian advances in 2025 than earlier this year [1] [2]. Yet analysts at ISW explicitly warn that these tactical gains do not equate to an imminent Russian military victory and that the Kremlin is conducting cognitive warfare to portray victory as inevitable [7].
2. High‑intensity strikes sustain pressure on Ukraine
Multiple outlets document a surge in Russian missile and drone attacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure: ISW counted 704 missiles and drones launched overnight Dec. 5–6, and AP and others described “major” barrages hitting energy and transport nodes during ongoing diplomacy [4] [5]. These strikes degrade logistics and civil infrastructure and are a central part of Russia’s current campaign to impose costs on Ukraine and its supporters [4] [5].
3. Urban battles produce mixed claims and heavy casualties
Moscow publicly celebrated the capture of Pokrovsk; Reuters and DW report Kremlin statements that Russian forces “fully captured” Pokrovsk while Ukrainian authorities said they still held parts of the city — illustrating conflicting battlefield narratives [3] [8]. Ukrainian formations report high Russian losses around Pokrovsk (e.g., the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps’ November casualty claims), while ISW notes Russian forces are often becoming “bogged down” in urban fighting [9] [7].
4. Attrition, manpower and industrial resilience complicate a simple ‘win’ narrative
Reporting in POLITICO notes Russia has sustained heavy battlefield losses yet continues to regenerate forces through recruitment, substitute mobilization and other means — a capacity that underpins Moscow’s bargaining posture and belief it can outlast opponents in a war of attrition [10]. Independent tallies cited by Russia Matters show huge matériel losses on both sides and large casualty estimates that make the conflict costly even where land changes hands [1].
5. Information operations and diplomacy are part of the battlefield
ISW and other analysts argue that the Kremlin deliberately refrains from operational transparency and amplifies narratives of impending victory to pressure negotiators and fracture Western resolve [7]. Simultaneously, U.S. and Ukrainian delegations are negotiating security frameworks and reconstruction plans while Russian diplomacy — including high‑level meetings — continues, meaning battlefield gains feed directly into political bargaining [4] [9].
6. Ukraine continues to resist and inflict costs
Despite Russian advances in certain sectors, Ukrainian forces continue to hold key positions in contested cities such as parts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and report repeated successful defensive actions and strikes on Russian infrastructure and logistics [6] [9]. Independent reporting also records Ukrainian strikes on Russian economic and naval targets, sustaining pressure on Moscow beyond the frontline [6] [11].
7. What “winning” would mean — and why it’s unsettled
Available sources show Russia is gaining ground and pressing Kyiv through kinetic strikes and political messaging, but they also show Ukraine holding ground, imposing heavy Russian casualties, and sustained Western–Ukrainian diplomacy that conditions any settlement on Russian concessions — therefore, a clear, decisive Russian “win” is not evident in the reporting [1] [7] [4]. ISW explicitly cautions that narratives of an imminent Russian victory are part of a cognitive campaign to force concessions [7].
Limitations and competing perspectives: reporting differs on the status of specific towns (Pokrovsk shows direct contradictions between Russian claims and Ukrainian denials) and on the weight of Russia’s gains (different mapping projects report different area figures) [3] [2] [1]. Some sources emphasize Russia’s momentum and manpower replenishment as decisive; others emphasize Ukraine’s resilient defense and Western diplomatic leverage — both views appear across the available reporting [10] [7] [4].
Bottom line: Russia is making significant, measurable advances and imposing heavy costs through missile/drone campaigns, but available open‑source reporting does not show a definitive, conclusive Russian victory; instead the war remains high‑intensity, contested on multiple fronts, and entwined with diplomacy and information operations [1] [4] [7].