Is russia winning the war with ukraine
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Executive summary
Russia has not achieved an outright, decisive victory in Ukraine despite recent territorial gains; ISW reports Russian forces gained roughly 243 square miles over four weeks to Dec. 9, 2025, and Russian statements portray confidence while Western analysts say battlefield gains are costly and limited [1] [2]. Russian leadership is waging a parallel “cognitive warfare” campaign claiming inevitability of victory even as Ukraine strikes back at Russian logistics and energy targets and repels many assaults [3] [2] [4].
1. The battlefield: slow grinding gains, high costs
Recent open-source military analysis shows the fight is attritional: Russian forces made incremental territorial advances — ISW-derived analysis indicates Russia gained 243 square miles in the four weeks to Dec. 9, 2025 — but those gains come amid heavy personnel and materiel expenditure, and are not framed as strategic collapse of Ukrainian resistance [1] [2]. ISW emphasizes that Russian forces gained only 0.77% of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025, which signals modest geographic returns for extensive effort [2].
2. Information war: Kremlin messaging versus Western assessments
The Kremlin is actively promoting narratives of imminent victory while publicly downplaying battlefield difficulties. Putin and other Russian officials have framed the economy and mobilization as resilient, but ISW and allied commentary assess many of those statements as cognitive warfare intended to make a negotiated settlement more favorable to Moscow [5] [6]. ISW explicitly cautions that Kremlin messaging seeks to portray a collapsing Ukrainian frontline even where that is not corroborated by independent analysis [7] [6].
3. Ukraine’s capability to strike back and disrupt Russian sustainment
Ukraine has continued to conduct offensive strikes beyond their borders, striking Russian refineries and even maritime targets used to move Russian oil, complicating Moscow’s revenue and logistics picture [3] [8]. Western intelligence reporting documents persistent Russian deep-strike campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure, and high rates of Russian drone and missile use indicate both sides are expending large stockpiles in sustained campaigns [9] [3].
4. Frontline dynamics: local advances, contested claims
Claims of major Russian operational feats are often contested. For example, Russian commanders claimed seizure of Siversk on Dec. 11, but ISW judged that claimed seizure unconfirmed and framed such messaging as part of cognitive warfare [7]. Similarly, reports that Russian forces had encircled Myrnohrad were contradicted by Ukrainian commanders and ISW reporting, which said encirclement had not occurred as of Dec. 5 [10] [7].
5. Human and material tolls reshape the strategic picture
Analysts point to disproportionate Russian personnel costs and sustained attritional fighting that limit the Kremlin’s ability to convert tactical advances into decisive strategic outcomes. ISW notes Russian forces are suffering “disproportionately high personnel costs” even where they make limited territorial gains [2]. Western and Ukrainian reporting also documents high rates of strikes causing civilian harm and infrastructure damage, complicating political calculations for both sides [11] [3].
6. Diplomacy and negotiations: pressure to lock in gains
Parallel diplomatic activity — U.S.- and Ukraine-led peace proposals, meetings involving intermediaries, and Kremlin refusal of certain terms — is playing a major role in shaping perceptions of “who is winning.” ISW reports Kremlin officials rejecting significant elements of Western-backed peace proposals and the Kremlin’s stated unwillingness to accept outcomes they regard as capitulation [12] [5] [7]. International debate — including statements that Ukraine is losing voiced by some political figures — further complicates the public narrative [13].
7. What “winning” would mean — and why it’s disputed
Available sources show disagreement about what a Russian “win” would actually look like. Kremlin rhetoric equates victory with achieving pre-set political goals; Western analysts argue Russian battlefield gains do not equate to strategic success given human costs, limited territorial returns, and Ukraine’s ongoing capacity to strike back [6] [2]. The term “winning” is therefore contested: Moscow presents one definition, independent analysts present another [5] [2].
8. Bottom line for readers
Russia is making localized advances and exerting pressure across multiple domains — military, economic, and information — but independent open-source analysis describes those advances as costly, limited, and accompanied by deliberate Kremlin messaging that overstates success. Neither the battlefield nor the diplomatic track shows a clear, uncontested Russian victory as of early December 2025 [2] [1] [6].
Limitations: reporting here synthesizes available open-source updates and media pieces; available sources do not mention certain classified casualty or logistic details and therefore those specifics are not addressed [2] [1].