What are the current frontlines and territory changes between Russia and Ukraine as of December 2025?

1. Current territorial footprint and recent net changes

Independent trackers and Western open-source analysts place Russia’s total control at roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory in December 2025, with monthly and four‑week period data showing sustained, if incremental, Russian advances: ISW reports ~4,669 km² taken since January 1, 2025 (0.77% of Ukraine) and Russia gained several hundred square miles in successive four‑week windows (for example, 243 sq. miles Nov. 11–Dec. 9 and 215–247 sq. miles in other late‑2025 windows), yielding an occupied area near 115,700–115,966 km² (≈19–19.2%) ^{[1] [2] [3] [7]}. Those figures include Crimea and the oblasts Russia annexed and claim as part of the federation; trackers note that incremental gains have been concentrated in Donetsk and adjacent sectors ^{[2] [1]}.

2. Where the fighting is busiest: Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk corridor and southern axes

Analysts observe the most intense ground pressure focused on the Donetsk oblast and the so‑called Fortress Belt that Ukraine has fortified, with Russian political leaders explicitly demanding full Donbas control while ISW judges a full seizure of Donetsk would be costly and take years if attempted militarily ^{[1] [8]}. Reporting and OSGE mapping indicate Russian advances around Pokrovsk and local gains in Donetsk settlements, while Ukrainian tactical counterattacks have reclaimed parts of Kupyansk at times, signaling fluid frontage in the Kupyansk‑Svatove‑Lyman corridor in the northeast ^{[4] [5] [9]}.

3. Patterns of operational tempo and costs

The operational pattern through 2025 is one of slow Russian territorial accrual at high personnel cost: ISW highlights that Russian gains since January 2025 have been small in percentage terms but achieved at “disproportionately high personnel costs” ^[1]. Russia’s strategy appears to combine attritional ground offensives with political pressure to force territorial concessions, while Ukraine’s limited counterattacks recover terrain tactically but face manpower and resource constraints noted by some observers ^{[1] [5]}.

4. Political overlay and how it shapes fronts

Territorial shifts are inseparable from political aims: the Kremlin has enshrined annexed Ukrainian oblasts in its constitution and publicly demands Donbas in any settlement, rejecting proposals that would return those territories or provide NATO‑like guarantees to Kyiv ^{[6] [8]}. Kyiv and Western mediators are discussing demilitarized buffer proposals, referenda and security guarantees — proposals Russia has largely rejected — which keeps the front lines both a bargaining chip and a battlefield ^{[4] [10]}.

5. Uncertainties, reporting limits and competing narratives

Open‑source counts vary slightly by methodology and timeframe: Russia Matters’ tally, ISW assessments and CFR synthesis are broadly aligned on the ~19–20% figure but differ on short‑term square‑mile calculations and casualty attributions across 2024–25, and some claims (e.g., precise casualty totals or specific village dates) rely on imperfect wartime reporting ^{[2] [11] [1]}. The Kremlin’s public maximalist demands—absorbing all Donbas—contrast with analysts’ assessments that a complete Donetsk seizure would be protracted and costly, revealing a political agenda that may outpace battlefield realities ^{[1] [12]}.

6. What this means going into 2026

The battlefield through December 2025 points to continued attritional fighting: Russia is consolidating modest gains and pressing Donbas lines while Kyiv seeks to blunt advances with limited counterattacks and international assistance; any major change in territory in 2026 will depend on force generation, Western support levels, and whether diplomacy produces a compromise — an unlikely immediate prospect given Moscow’s stated non‑negotiable territorial aims ^{[1] [10] [12]}.