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Fact check: Check the accuracy of this article;https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-drove-away-ukrainian-expertise-ineeds-for-its-missile-program-2025-1

Checked on January 31, 2025

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, Russia is experiencing significant challenges in its missile and arms programs. The evidence shows:

  • Critical loss of Ukrainian expertise after 2014 when Ukraine terminated missile cooperation contracts [1]
  • Multiple test failures of the Sarmat ICBM program, including a potential catastrophic failure in September [1]
  • A dramatic 53% decline in weapons exports between 2014-18 and 2019-23 periods [2]
  • Reduction in export partners from 31 countries to just 12 in recent years [2]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses provide important additional context not typically highlighted in discussions about Russian military capabilities:

  • Russia's specific technical limitations with liquid-fueled ICBMs [1]
  • The broader impact on Russia's international arms trade, particularly with traditional major customers like India, China, and Egypt [2]
  • Expert assessments from Timothy Wright and Fabian Hoffmann suggesting Russia lacks sufficient expertise to complete its missile program successfully [1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

Several factors should be considered when evaluating this topic:

  • Beneficiaries of different narratives:
  • Russian state media benefits from downplaying these challenges to maintain an image of military strength
  • Western defense contractors benefit from highlighting Russian military weaknesses
  • Ukrainian interests are served by emphasizing Russia's dependence on their previous expertise
  • Data limitations:
  • While we have clear statistics on arms exports [2], specific technical details about missile programs might be classified or difficult to verify
  • The full article content was not available for analysis, which limits our ability to fact-check specific claims in the Business Insider piece (null)

The available evidence suggests the core claims about Russia's missile program challenges are supported by multiple indicators and expert assessments, though the complete article text would be needed for a comprehensive fact-check.

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